The Stock Market Has Predicted The Outcome Of Presidential Elections With 86 Percent Accuracy

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Presidential Election 2016 - Public DomainIf you want Donald Trump to win the election, then you should be rooting for a stock market crash between now and November.  As you will see below, if stocks go up during the last three months before an election, the incumbent party almost always keeps the White House.  But if stocks go down during the last three months before an election, the incumbent party almost always loses.  Earlier today, Trump warned Americans to get out of the stock market, and if his warning turns out to be correct it will likely benefit him politically as well.  When the general population believes that things are going well, Americans tend to stick with current leadership, but when the general population believes that we have hit rocky times they are usually ready for a change.


It turns out that this very strong correlation between the direction of the stock market and the outcomes of presidential elections goes all the way back to before the days of the Great Depression.  The following comes from Zero Hedge

Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the S&P 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost.

The last time this correlation failed was back in 1980, and at that time Americans were feeling depressed about the country for other reasons.  Overall, the stock market has predicted the outcome of presidential elections with 86 percent accuracy, and that is way too strong of a correlation to ignore.  Just consider the gains or losses that we have seen for the S&P 500 during the last three months prior to each election since 1928 and the outcomes of those elections

1928: 13.6 percent gainincumbent party won

1932: -2.6 percent lossincumbent party lost

1936: 7.9 percent gainincumbent party won

1940: 8.6 percent gainincumbent party won

1944: 2.3 percent gainincumbent party won

1948: 5.4 percent gainincumbent party won

1952: -3.3 percent lossincumbent party lost

1956: -2.6 percent lossincumbent party won

1960: -0.7 percent lossincumbent party lost

1964: 2.6 percent gainincumbent party won

1968: 6.5 percent gainincumbent party lost

1972: 3.0 percent gainincumbent party won

1976: -0.1 percent lossincumbent party lost

1980: 6.7 percent gainincumbent party lost

1984: 4.8 percent gainincumbent party won

1988: 1.9 percent gainincumbent party won

1992: -1.2 percent lossincumbent party lost

1996: 8.2 percent gainincumbent party won

2000: -3.2 percent lossincumbent party lost

2004: 2.2 percent gainincumbent party won

2008: -19.5 percent lossincumbent party lost

2012: 2.5 percent gainincumbent party won

As you can see, the only times the correlation broke down were during the years of 1956, 1968 and 1980.

But this is a very strange year.  We have never seen a candidate like Donald Trump before, and the establishment is pulling out all of the stops in an effort to derail his march to the White House.  So the normal rules may not apply this time around.

On Tuesday, Barack Obama took time out of his busy schedule to tell the press that Trump is “woefully unprepared” to be president, and he called on Republican leaders to pull their support from him

“There has to come a point at which you say somebody who makes those kinds of statements doesn’t have the judgment, the temperament, the understanding to occupy the most powerful position in the world,” Obama said at the event with PM Lee Hsien Loong.

“There has to be a point in which you say this is somebody I can’t support for president of United States,” the president said. “There has to be a point in which you say ‘enough.'”

The funny thing is that the exact same things could be said of Hillary Clinton.  In fact, three of the top four hardcover books on the New York Times nonfiction best sellers list are about how Hillary Clinton does not have the judgment, the temperament or the character to be the president of the United States.  The following comes from the Washington Examiner

For the first time, three of the top four New York Times nonfiction best sellers are anti-Clinton books.

Two new books jumped to the front of the all-important hardcover nonfiction list just this week: Armageddon, by Dick Morris and Eileen McGann, and Hillary’s America, by Dinesh D’Souza.

They join No. 1 Crisis of Character by former Secret Serviceman Gary J. Byrne which has been on top of the list for four straight weeks.

If you want to see where Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and the Democrats want to take America, all you have to do is to look at the meltdown of the “socialist paradise” in Venezuela.  For a while socialism seemed to work just fine there, but now desperate citizens wait in lines for up to 12 hours hoping to get something to feed their families…

A BBC journalist, who attempted to film the crisis, was stopped and forced by soldiers to delete footage of a protest outside a supermarket as desperate Venezuelans waited for food.

Baying crowds shouted “We want to buy stuff!” as they grouped outside the store in the country’s capital, Caracas.

BBC journalist Vladimir Hernandez reports that many people approached him to say they had queued for 12 hours without being able to buy what they wanted.

This is what the endgame of socialism looks like.

Unfortunately, the American people don’t understand this.

Unfortunately, about half the country wants to make Hillary Clinton the next president of the United States.

And in the end, the outcome of this election may be swayed one way or the other based on what the stock market does between now and November.

I don’t know what that says about our country, but it isn’t good.

If the American people still had any sense, an ultra-corrupt, morally bankrupt politician such as Hillary Clinton would not have a prayer of being elected dog catcher, much less president of the United States.  The fact that about half the country plans to vote for her at this point is extremely frightening, and it may indicate that this nation is in far worse shape than most of us would like to admit.

  • Rhialto the Marvellous

    I’m against Hillary more than any other person in the country, but IMHO it really doesn’t matter who wins – this country’s toast. The debt can’t be stopped and has taken on a life of its own, growing uncontrollably.

    • jo

      so figure out who exactly the money is owed to and ask them for “forgiveness”

      • Rhialto the Marvellous


    • Mistanick

      We don’t have the power to declare anything as “toast”. Life does go on and we have the commandment from God to manage our life as would please God, do we not? It helps to not look side to side, but look forward. Tell me, how do you believe the folks during the depression felt about their plight? Self pity never helps anything.

  • Robert

    20 trillion debt will dictate the future. Everything else is a charade and musical chairs.

  • K

    Let me add to the Venezuela situation. It is being reported people are being drafted off the street, and being forced to work in the fields. Did not know Mao was in Venezuela.

  • corporate news lies

    Reuters tampered with its own daily tracking poll to manufacture a sudden surge for Hillary Clinton.

    • iris

      not surprised by this one, either.

  • uncharted 4

    Google is manipulating search results in favor of Hitlery.

    • iris

      not surprised

    • john folger

      yahoo too

  • DJohn1

    Hillary may just win. Or Donald Trump. Neither is really ready to assume the position they are running for.
    So what does that say about our political parties?
    I see Trump delegating a lot if he becomes President.
    I think our entire foreign policy might be in the hands of his Vice President. At least for a while.
    I see him grand standing. He is vain. He has weaknesses just like any person.
    I also see him making a lot of deals with the powers that be. Only because it is the only thing he can do at that point in time.
    If Hillary wins? I see a lot of fumble footing around until she gets a team together. Because essentially it is a team behind the candidates that either make or break them.
    I am more disturbed by the open backing of one candidate over another by President Obama.
    As a lame duck President in the last months of his presidency that man needs to stay neutral. And that is very difficult to do.
    No matter who wins he has to provide the team transitioning into a new presidency.
    Any democracy depends on many people. It is not a one man show or a one woman show. They are simply the icon by which the rest of government functions.
    Commander in chief holds a lot of military power.
    Where did Trump go right?
    He has obviously blundered right and left and made many errors in judgment. But people voted for him anyway rather than the corrupted individuals owned body and soul by the corporations.
    Now a lot of Republicans feel they made a mistake and are not backing him even though he has the nomination? I say they have gone back on their words. I say if the American Public has any sense at all they will run them right out of office for welching on their word.

    • GV

      with Hillary you are guaranteed more war.

      with Trump, who knows

  • iris

    Then, I wouldn’t be surprised if the market soars until the middle to latter part of Nov.-early Jan. of 2017, then absolutely tanks. At least, I think that would fit the agenda of the global elites. But the things of this world are tenuous at best, anyway. God is the real treasure, and He gave Himself freely to us by His atoning death and resurrection. You can’t take gold to heaven, but there, it will be so mundane, that those who have put their hope and trust in Him, will literally walk on streets of it.

    • iris

      Have heard that 100% pure gold would have to be transparent. Hmm, how could that have been known when the verse was written in the Bible about the streets of gold in heaven being transparent?

  • sammy

    most upper class people are clueless masonic tools, the lower class compeltley useless, the working class totally subservient to their taxes and television, and the political elites serving the global banking agenda. So unless people do what iceland did (kick out the bankers, nationalise the banks, cancel all debts, and put in a better non-corrupt system) then ther eisntmuch hope

    • Francis Booth

      Sammy, I think you nailed it!

  • Stan

    The stock market, like everything else including elections, equal justice under the law, Due Process, and a Limited Government is rigged….

  • neutered male

    According to Politifact Hillary supports a 500% increase in Syrian refugees without a screening plan.
    There’s 1.6 billion Muslims and 1 billion support Sharia law, that’s over 50%.

  • neutered male

    According to Politifact Hillary supports a 500% increase in Syrian refugees without a screening plan.
    There’s 1.6 billion Muslims and 1 billion support Sharia law, that’s over 50%.

  • Jim Clark

    Another indication of a victory for Hillary….and the American people

    • Mistanick

      Are you mind numb? You like the thought of killing babies Jim?

  • DJohn1

    The choice seems to be Obnoxious Trump or Lying Hilliary.
    Not much of a choice in this election I fear.
    Look closely at who their running mates are.

    • Mistanick

      No John, look at what their stance is on abortion. Is that not enough?? Think appointment of judges to the Supreme Court in the next 4-8 years. I don’t care who their running mates are.

    • American23t

      I’ll take obnoxious over lying any day. Cannot stand liars .

  • gogenhouser

    That’s right stop, any decent American knows what a slick helleroid americka would look like. With millions of illegals, gangs, crime, isis to usher in martial law only the law would only apply to the Christian

  • Guest’s the Name

    Ugh, you people and your juvenile name-calling (e.g., “Hitlery”, “Hildebeast”, etc). Honestly, barring a miracle — Donald stepping aside and allowing a rational GOP candidate to WIN IN NOVEMBER — I’ll accept Hillary Clinton’s win and get on with my prosperous, non-bitter life. Meanwhile you bitter children who should know better will just continue to derail our country by pitching and moaning ad nauseum.

    As for the tired, disproven a-Democrat-President-will-do-this-and-do-that claims, we all said the same nonsense about Barack Obama, and HE hasn’t declared martial law to take away our guns or put us into camps (even though that was the absolute promise that right-wingers were making to one another on boards like this one).

    A Clinton presidency will be as successful as the Obama one, and the only “bad” things about her presidency will be coming from the imaginations/mouths of people who can’t stand her. “Certain people” hated Obama because he is Black, and those same “certain people” can’t stand the thought of a woman prez either. We had a real good run, all white, all male, throughout our entire history.

    Welp, that streak is over, and it had to end sometime. Have some self respect and quit screaming like babies because you aren’t getting your way. I bet in 2024 we’ll get us a white guy again. Chances are he’ll be a Dem though. The right wing has been ritualistically killing itself these last ten years.

    • Mistanick

      Super guest? Your conscience is gone and when that happens, God gives those up to a reprobate mind. Now that is super scary.

    • GV

      “…A Clinton presidency will be as successful as the Obama one….”

      ROFLOL, you finally got something right!

      “successful” as in more wars, more American jobs being shipped overseas, more power for Big Government, etc.

    • As for the tired, disproven a-Democrat-President-will-do-this-and-do-that claims, we all said the same nonsense about Barack Obama…”
      It’s not democrat vs republican and i’m not a certain wing!
      Lets see so he did steal over $400 from me with Obamacare fine, he did try damaging the coal industry which is likely why prices for metal are so high, health insurance prices skyrocketed.

      Hillary is a Bilderberg member!

  • Abe

    The market is as manipulated as the vote.

  • SantosGarcia

    Through the end of Sept. 2016 we are in ‘The Wake of The Shemitah’; rough waters ahead:

  • iris

    Yes, it is.

  • GV

    “… I can be accused of being a one issue man, that of abortion….”

    so I guess you have already adopted an unwanted child, right?

    • Mistanick

      Are you a man or woman. Let’s cover both sides.

      Your classic planned parenthood response attempts to justify abortion because seemingly no one will adopt the unwanted baby. This attempts to deflect the issue. So if a baby is born and no one is ready to adopt, end the life of that baby. Right? Justifiable??

      For the man and woman, each have the option of having sex or not. If they are not ready to raise a child, abstain. Period. The purpose of sex is to procreate children. It is not recreation.

      I will let this go for now. My initial response may be posted. It is being “reviewed” by the moderator but says the same thing.

      • There’s a lot of studies showing s increases lifespan so they just need to use protection. As for me I don’t have the hormones to have that desire.

        • Mistanick

          Maybe you should stop drinking so much, or it way past your bed time Billy.

          • west

            I’ve never drank with the exception of some red wine. The comment is true. I figured out to stop hair loss there’s a S & J Tools Tri-bander I could send to PO box. That’s about all I can say because the mod is really strict.

  • stop comment censorship

    Bilderberg elected Obama twice, or at least the 2nd time I think. Votes were faked. The elite do not care about democracy.

    • Mistanick

      Many folks give the so called “elite” too much credit. A stupid electorate elected Obama twice. He was crowned as come kind of god man, a savior of the new world and at last an atonement for slavery by guilt ridden white people who do not know history.