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Disaster For Donald Trump In Iowa And The Probability Of A Brokered Convention Just Went Way Up

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Donald Trump Caricature - Photo from Max GoldbergThis isn’t how it was supposed to go for Donald Trump. Iowa was supposed to be the first in a series of convincing wins that would cement his status as the inevitable nominee of the Republican Party. But instead, Iowa dealt a very serious blow to Trump’s candidacy, and it threw the race for the Republican nomination wide open. Of course Trump is far from dead, but now New Hampshire becomes a must win for him. If Trump does not win in New Hampshire where he is heavily favored, he will be 0-2 and it will send the political sharks in the Republican Party into a feeding frenzy. As I will explain below, Trump needs to win at least 60 percent of the delegates before the convention to secure the nomination, and as I write this tonight it appears to be extremely doubtful that he will be able to do that. If he can only pull in 24 percent of the vote in Iowa, then he definitely does not have the overwhelming momentum that many people believed that he had.

A lot of people out there don’t understand how this process works. Donald Trump could win more states than anyone else during this entire process and still not win the nomination. Let me see if I can explain…

In order to win the nomination, one of the Republican candidates must secure at least 1,237 of the 2,472 delegates that are up for grabs overall.

But not all of those 2,472 delegates will be awarded during the caucuses and primaries. Out of the total of 2,472 delegates, 437 of them are considered to be “unpledged delegates”. These unpledged delegates are individuals of importance within the Republican Party, and the vast majority of them are members of the establishment.

Needless to say, the establishment is not very fond of Donald Trump. Donald Trump could still win the Republican nomination without any of those unpledged delegates, but in order to do so he would need to win 60.78 percent of the delegates that are up for grabs during the caucuses and primaries.

Of course he got off to a rough start tonight by only winning 24 percent of the vote in Iowa. If he continues to perform like this, he doesn’t have a prayer of becoming the Republican nominee.

During this election season, more states will be allocating their delegates on a proportional basis than ever before. This is something that I explained extensively in this article. That means that it is going to be quite difficult for any Republican candidate to pile up 60 percent of the delegates by the time the convention rolls around.

And if no candidate is able to secure enough delegates, that means that we would end up with a “brokered convention”. The mechanics of a brokered convention can get quite complicated, but on a practical level what that would essentially mean is that the party establishment would get to hand select the nominee. And in case you are wondering, that would not be Donald Trump or Ted Cruz.

Ted Cruz had a wonderful night in Iowa on Monday. He significantly outperformed his poll numbers by pulling in 28 percent of the vote. But Ted Cruz had to win Iowa because he basically put everything into it. He was pretty much betting his entire candidacy on a good result there.

For those that are now anticipating that Cruz will become the lead dog in this race, it is important to remember that Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and Rick Santorum won Iowa in 2012. Both of those candidates also appealed to evangelical voters, but neither of them had a prayer of winning the nomination.

Could Cruz be different?

We shall see, but remember, the party establishment greatly dislikes him too. So Cruz has the same problem with delegate math that Trump does.

To me, the big winner on Monday night was Marco Rubio. He greatly outperformed his poll numbers by pulling in 23 percent of the vote and coming in a close third place. Heading into New Hampshire, he has far more momentum than any of the other establishment candidates. At this point, he should probably be considered the favorite to eventually get the nomination.

And in case you are wondering, Rubio would definitely not be my choice. So don’t take what I am saying as any kind of an endorsement. My comments are simply a reflection of political reality.

In addition, it is important to note that there is still a long way to go, and New Hampshire could change everything.

Right at this moment, this is how the Real Clear Politics average of surveys for New Hampshire looks…

Trump: 33.2 percent

Cruz: 11.5 percent

Kasich: 11.5 percent

Bush: 10.3 percent

Rubio: 9.5 percent

Christie: 6.5 percent

With a lead this big, it would be a disaster of cataclysmic proportions if Trump were to lose.

He must win New Hampshire, and if he doesn’t he might as well think about throwing in the towel.

Cruz should expect a bit of a bump in the polls after Iowa, but socially conservative candidates typically don’t do very well in New Hampshire. If he could take second place that would have to be considered a nice victory for him.

To me, the key to New Hampshire will be how the four establishment candidates fare. If momentum from Iowa helps Rubio significantly outperform Bush, Kasich and Christie, there is a good chance that Rubio could emerge as the sole establishment alternative to Trump and Cruz in this race. But if Bush, Kasich or Christie are able to top Rubio, the race to become “the establishment choice” will once again be thrown wide open.

In any event, at this juncture it is hard to see anyone accumulating 60 percent of the delegates before the convention, especially if the field stays this crowded.

And perhaps that is precisely what the Republican establishment wants.

The Republican elite are desperate to have someone not named Trump or Cruz win the nomination, and so if it is going to take a brokered convention to make that happen, then that is going to be fine with them.

Average Republicans may think that they are in the process of choosing their next president, but that is not the way the real world works.

For the Republican establishment, there is just one goal – stopping Trump and Cruz.

That is all that matters to them now, and they will move heaven and earth to do it.

  • Easy guess

    You can bet that the Establishement rats have used as much fraud as they possibly can.

  • Robert

    “If your vote counted, they would not let you vote.” Mark Twain

    • iris

      Imo, they count our votes, but only for demographic purposes, and it’s been that way for a very long time, as the quote above says. I’m voting my conscience, and the electronic machine will probably tally it as something different, but at least “tptb” will know I see through their smoke and mirrors. My citizenship is in heaven, anyway, and God will win in the end.

      • Satanism is a Jewish cult.

        1. UN chief of Migration, chairman Goldman-Sachs bank.

        2. CFR globalist Ted Cruz’s wife works for Goldman-Sachs.

        3. Sydney Blumenthal, John Podesta not Muslims, work for Hillary.

        4. Rupert Murdoch says ‘Bloomberg would make a good president.’

        5. Filthy kíke Mike Bloomberg sells Sharia financial services.

        6. Syrian “rebel” terrorists met Keating 5 Senator McCain.

        7. Sheldon Adelson bankrolls Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

        8. George Soros, public enemy #1 in Russia, just gave Hillary 8 million

        9. Bernie Sanders needs to “feel the Bern” in a big oven.

    • kfilly

      And Joseph Stalin said something similar.

      • It is true

        The Jewish doctrine of Marxism rejects the aristocratic principle of Nature and replaces the eternal privilege of power and strength by the mass of numbers and their dead weight.

        (Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf)

    • jaxon64

      Great quote–the great mistake is watching the theater in the first place.
      Scary to think that so many millions follow this political charade so closely. So many disillusioned that somehow believe “if we just elect the right human being, we can fix the ills of our nation”…silly fools, what truly ails our nation is spiritual in nature and won’t be fixed by ANY man or woman spending billions for the brass ring of ultimate power.

      • Pam

        Amen!

        • iris

          Yes, indeed!

      • White Votes Matter

        Stand up and be counted
        Show the world that you’re a man!
        Stand up and be counted
        Go with the Ku Klux Klan!

        We are a sacred brotherhood
        Who love our country true
        We always can be counted on
        When there’s a job to do

        We serve our homeland day and night
        To keep it always free
        And proudly wear our robes of white
        Protecting liberty!

        Stand up and be counted
        Show the world that you’re a man!
        Stand up and be counted
        Go with the Ku Klux Klan!

        The Bible calls for glory to
        Our symbols of the man
        A sword, and water, rope, and hood
        Portray our noble Klan!

        In search of peace and liberty
        We pledge our hearts and hands
        We must defeat the Communists
        To save our Christian Land!

        Stand up and be counted
        Show the world that you’re a man!
        Stand up and be counted
        Go with the Ku Klux Klan!

      • johmill

        The entire reason America is in trouble and will not recover is because we’ve abandoned God. Our founders made it clear that our nation could only survive if we are a religious and moral people. Even if we elect someone who can make changes, it will only buy us a short time before we collapse.

        • iris

          You’re so right. God’s mercy is greater than His judgement, but He is a fair judge, so judge, He will.

  • VigilanteCaregiver

    Doesn’t matter who wins or even who’s elected: the damage will continue.

    There is no trust for any of these guys. Reagan said trust, but verify. I say no trust, verify and record everything.

    And these guys should put up a substantial security deposit before election day (banks ask for security on large loans: why not ask the same from candidates?) to cover the inevitable damage costs the winner will inflict on my family.

    And for the trolls out there, just a reminder that I have a “trollblocking” program on my computer: your comment will still appear on Disqus, but will be deleted from my browser.

    • Guest

      Wow, I’d love to use that “trollblocking” program too. What’s it called?

      • disqus101

        It would be a simple program similar to an ad blocker. Since he’s not the disqus moderator of this site it can’t see details like IP address, email, so it would only be able to make commenters invisible based on their name and if they use text similar to spammers; it could also block based on photo (maybe more if the account is not private)
        if someone he blocked replyed to him in the past he could also easily add their name to the programs blacklist even if they change names of the same account

        • VigilanteCaregiver

          As an ad blocker…

          That might be better than what I set up.

          Thanks desert!

      • VigilanteCaregiver

        Well, it’s kinda tricky.

        My web browser has a tool called “Hack the Web”: it lets you move around scripts, photos, and such, or delete it. I wrote a program that uses the hacking tool to automatically delete very specific things based on it’s dictionary. All I need to do is input a word and where to scan for that word, and the program takes over automatically.

        I don’t even work as a programmer. Bought the book “Programming for Dummies” and it taught me a lot!

    • Gay Veteran

      “… just a reminder that I have a “trollblocking” program on my computer: your comment will still appear on Disqus, but will be deleted from my browser.”

      of course you don’t want to see those posts because you are intellectually INCAPABLE of defending your own positions (and I have repeatedly proven that!), COWARD

      • awb22

        something you have in common, then

        • Gay Veteran

          no, moron, you are just like Vigilante Caregiver, incapable of defending your own positions

          • awb22

            oh, what have I not defended, sodomite?

          • awb22

            what position would that be, idiot?

      • englishvinal

        Nah… Caretaker isn’t incapable of responding… he is just repulsed by the concept of exchanging ANYTHING… even written on a sterile keyboard…and from a distance – with you.
        ….
        I see his point.

        • Gay Veteran

          hey Vigilante Caregiver, how’s it going?

        • VigilanteCaregiver

          Brutal! :) Thanks!

    • iris

      Agree. Congress is spineless, Scotus makes instead of interpreting laws, Executive order has become the norm, not the exception. God sets in place whom He will, and kingdoms rise and fall. I will continue to obey the laws of the country I live in, but must obey God if a choice needs to be made.

      • VigilanteCaregiver

        Absolutely true! Thanks!

  • Giorgi

    Christie or Bush have zero chances cementing themselves as the sole establishment candidate. Jeb has blown an entire fortune on his campaign and can not even break into double digits. Christie is a personification of gluttony and nothing more. Anyway, it’s the republican triumvirate left: Rubio, Cruz and Trump. Republican party, much like the late Roman republic, is now so fractured and divided, it only aids the democrats and hinders achieiving the goals all of them share, even Rubio.

    And remember as bad as the establishment candidate Rubio may be, Hillary or Sanders will be thousand times worse and will pretty much throw US off the cliff straight into the abyss of insolvency. Sometimes, as horrible as it may sound, when choosing between “bad” and “utterly disastrous”, you just have to concede to the bad.

    • sam

      There’s a historical poster about politicians that says something like “Of the two evils choose the least”

  • K

    Seems I remember someone claiming the app being used to count the selection. Could be easily manipulated, and caused to show inacurate numbers. This concern was raised well before the caucus.If you were going to play games. You would not make your guy the winner. You would just keep him close. After all, he will get all the uncommitted. But why would a party want to run someone {Rubio} who could not beat their opponent. They have never done something like that before, Romney, McCain. Or cheated a candidate, in any way Ron Paul. You see, when a Government is so corrupt. That all elected officials do is line their own pockets. Maintaining the status quo. Is more important than political party.

  • Mike

    As much as I like Ted Cruz,This nation does not want a true Christian in office.And there is not enough Evangelicals to push him to finish line.

    • guest

      Cruz is anything but a true Christian.

    • politicians r evil

      He supported Obummer’s trade deal that would probably cut more American jobs.
      I don’t think it was a mistake–the political snakes almost always know what they’re doing.

    • Gay Veteran

      sorry, but little Teddy Cruz sets off my gaydar.

      “Gaydar (a portmanteau of gay and radar) is a colloquialism referring to the intuitive ability of a person to assess others’ sexual orientations as gay, bisexual or heterosexual….”

      • awb22

        i’m sure he does

  • DJohn1

    What you are saying makes sense.
    The rules of the game of politics do not necessarily elect the most popular candidate.
    The media also play a role in election of a President.
    The one that appears right often gets the election.
    Bottom line though is the establishment gets to choose not the American people.
    Now in most elections no one actually knows about all this.
    This election is different. And if they do pull this, then the Republican credibility is all gone.

  • Undecider

    It’s just a magic show. They’re going to B.S. the population into thinking a person’s going to win then manipulate the votes to make it happen.

    • jaxon64

      Like they did with gay marriage. Whatever one’s belief–the media and government hoodwinked everyone.
      Times polls and Washington Post polls supposedly reported ” a majority of americans are for allowing gay marriage”…but more grassroots polls and simply everyone you know was not for it.
      They tell you that the majority is for it, then they outlaw or chagrin any speaking against it–and finally they pass an illegal law that the Supreme Court was not allowed to create anyhow–and then tell us it was a done deal.
      So 80+% of Americans are against something but are told they are the minority viewpoint and the government changes a 6000+ year definition of the word marriage….insanity.

      • Gay Veteran

        “…but more grassroots polls and simply everyone you know was not for it….”

        got ANY proof for that?

        “…So 80+% of Americans are against something but are told they are the minority viewpoint and the government changes a 6000+ year definition of the word marriage….insanity.”

        oh, sooooo now it’s 80+%, AGAIN got ANY proof?
        change the definition? like no more polygamy? like women no longer being property? like interracial couples now able to marry?

        • jaxon64

          even liberal California with the largest gay populace voted 67% against gay marriage when it was at the ballot—this with massive pro-gay efforts, boycotts and typical bullying.
          The premise that the majority of americans support it is a flat out lie—one of those Nazi propaganda tricks where you just keep repeating it and repeating it and eventually people believe it.
          Then the masses herd mentality takes over and people will follow along with what they think the majority is doing or believing–I know some Bernie supporters and when they are away from their liberal wives, even they admit a revulsion toward homosexuality.
          Never met a straight male who is not anti-gay marriage ( even though some admit it with a hushed voice and furtive glances for the PC police>)

          • jaxon64

            PS: Trying to compare the fight for women’s rights, racial equality or even interracial marriage with perverse BEHAVIOR is inane at best but most likely your disingenuous attempt at lumping yourself with those who were undoubtedly treated unfairly.
            You want civil unions, equal tax status and health insurance–fine. However that has never been the agenda–the goal was the destruction of the family and institution of marriage. You got equal rights for your “partners” but that was not enough until you destroyed what the “straights” had—probably simple spite or hate..but the deed is done and our society is destined to die without doubt. No society lasts without strong family ties and responsibilities.

          • Gay Veteran

            “PS: Trying to compare the fight for women’s rights, racial equality or even interracial marriage with perverse BEHAVIOR is inane at best but most likely your disingenuous attempt at lumping yourself with those who were undoubtedly treated unfairly….”

            want to know what else is a protected BEHAVIOR? religion

            and perverse? you need to move to join your kindred spirits in Saudi Arabia

            “…the goal was the destruction of the family and institution of marriage. You got equal rights for your “partners” but that was not enough until you destroyed what the “straights” had—probably simple spite or hate..but the deed is done and our society is destined to die without doubt. No society lasts without strong family ties and responsibilities.”

            hey Einstein, in court your type were UTTERLY INCAPABLE of explaining how marriage equality was going to “destroy” marriage.

            what, a few gays get married and all you hets are going to refuse to get married???

            the FACT remains that it is HETEROSEXUAL behavior that is destroying strong family ties: cheating, out of wedlock children, divorce, spouse abuse, etc.

          • awb22

            heteros are the protected class, no reprobates. revisionist history

          • englishvinal

            “Veteran” of WHAT?…. this light in the loafers feller never has told us what exactly he is a “veteran” of.

          • Gay Veteran

            veteran of your daddy’s blow jobs

          • awb22

            again with the daddy fixation

          • VigilanteCaregiver

            If it’s that gay guy, he’s not a war or military veteran. He’s actually a veteran of being gay. Indirect stolen valor.

            Sorry, I have a trollblocker and can’t see his lunacy anymore.

          • iris

            I agree. Everyone should be treated with respect, but this country has been attacked for decades at its very roots, the nuclear family. And things are getting worse. The American Psychiatric Association pushed for 20 years that same sex behavior should be considered normal before they got their way. Now, they’re pushing that pedophilia should be accepted similarly. Our poor children. One of these days, people will be allowed to marry their pets, but abusing innocent children and calling it love? No, that’s called gratification and manipulation of a helpless victim.

          • Gay Veteran

            might want to get your “facts” “straight”:

            California Proposition 8, the “Eliminates Right of Same-Sex Couples to Marry” Initiative (2008)

            “Prop 8, officially titled Proposition 8 – Eliminates Right of Same-Sex Couples to Marry, was a statewide ballot proposition in California.[1] On November 4, 2008, voters approved the measure and made same-sex marriage illegal in California….”

            and what was the vote?
            Yes = 52.24%
            No = 47.76%

          • awb22

            and I agree

          • Gay Veteran

            “…Never met a straight male who is not anti-gay marriage….”

            and back in the day white males were anti-interracial marriage.

            your type has now lost twice

          • awb22

            it’s not a civil rights issue, you may have won the battle, to your own detriment. no one gives a rip about sodomites, except they go away

          • Gay Veteran

            awwww, poor Sodomite Obsessed Polly, your type is ending up on the dung heap of history!
            :)

          • awb22

            hehe, you wish

          • awb22

            even if you were correct, which you’re not, it’s still better than where you’ll end up.

          • awb22

            yours isn’t a civil rights cause

          • Gay Veteran

            says the ayatollah wannabe who wants to dictate how people live their lives

          • awb22

            says you

          • Gay Veteran

            guess you forgot about recent history (2012):

            “…In June 2012, referendum supporters submitted 109,313 valid signatures to the state secretary,[68] more than the 55,736 required for a ballot in Maryland.[69] The language of Referendum Question 6 informed voters that the Civil Marriage Protection Act would allow same-sex couples to obtain a civil marriage license, protect clergy from having to perform any particular marriage ceremony in violation of their religious beliefs, and affirm that each religious faith has exclusive control over its own theological doctrine regarding who may marry within that faith.[70] On November 6, 2012, the measure passed with 52.4% of the vote….”

          • awb22

            guess you forgot the SCOTUS overturned states rights. there will be a day of reckoning

          • Gay Veteran

            states rights? oh yeah, when ni**ers couldn’t vote

          • awb22

            don’t try to join your cause with the fake civil rights movement

          • Gay Veteran

            guess you also forgot about that bastion of liberalism: Maine /sarc/

            “…The referendum was declared passed on November 6, 2012 by the Associated Press, and opposition group Protect Marriage Maine conceded at 1:30 am on November 7, 2012.[22] 53% of Maine voted in favor….”

          • awb22

            NC voted against, what’s your point?

          • Gay Veteran

            wasn’t talking to you, a** wipe

          • awb22

            still a free country, potty mouth atheist

          • Ha ha ha

            Born gay, as gay as the wind blows
            As gay as the grass grows
            Born gay to follow your heart

            Live gay and beauty surrounds you
            The world still astounds you
            Each time you look at a star

            Stay gay, where no walls divide you
            You’re gay as the roaring tide
            So there’s no need to hide

            Born gay, and life is worth living
            But only worth living
            ’cause you’re born gay!

            (Stay gay, where no walls divide you)
            You’re gay as the roaring tide
            So there’s no need to hide

            Born gay, and life is worth living
            But only worth living
            ’cause you’re born gay!

          • englishvinal

            Truly corageous types those “gays”… they must be as they are SOooooooooooo “happy/gay” in the face of Karposi’s Sarcoma, AIDS, gay bowel syndrome – (yes I know the term is obsolete by demand of the “gay” community, but the problem still exists unchanged)…..
            ….. and lest we skip a biggie ”
            Escherichia coli and Helminthic parasites and Shigellosis and the list goes on…
            CDC has stated that the life expectancy of homosexuals is on the average 20 years LESS than other folks.
            Brave types, yep, lives ‘worth living’ with their kind of beauty surrounding them… yep.

          • VigilanteCaregiver

            And they have the highest domestic violence rates of any special interest group.

            Also, the American Psychological Association back in 1976 didn’t drop homosexuality from the DSM. They reclassified it from a psychopathy to a mental disorder with two subsets. APA’s reasoning was to ensure basic rights: with a psychopathic diagnosis, someone can lose their constitutional rights to free speech, property, etc. They didn’t legitimize it; they hoped the homosexuals would be more open to treatment and such – too bad the media manipulated it.

            The homosexual marriages are moot anyway. There’s no genetic traits that distinguishes someone as homosexual. Without that, there’s no proof that it’s genetic. Even if it was genetic; that would be devastating due to the vast number of abortions and lack of “treatments” for the mutation. These illegitimate marriages have 0% chance of producing offspring – compared to the 91% of actual marriages. For children, homosexuals without taking children from their proper place with a mother and father. This, in it’s way, helps fosters demographic collapse.

            It doesn’t matter what the homosexuals and usurpers argue; their actions provide absolutely no benefit to society. So, why bother bastardizing functioning social norms to feed the psychosis of 1.6% of the overall population?

        • awb22

          whew, someone struck a nerve

          • Gay Veteran

            no, I just have zero tolerance for BS

          • awb22

            hypocrite

          • awb22

            and I have zero tolerance for hypocrites

      • iris

        Yep.

    • KEITH

      I don’t know why the Cruz win in Iowa was a surprise. Cruz was polling slightly ahead of Trump 90% of the time through this campaign in Iowa. His small margin win was nothing and not a surprise. If you take a look at the next primaries and caucuses Trump is well ahead in the polling by a large amount. I’m talking just about all of them. Besides the winner of Iowa rarely goes on to the nomination.

  • Nationalist

    Iowa, the land of the evangelical christian, the federally subsidized farm, and illegal alien labor in pork factories. I said it.

    The fact that Trump finished second on his platform of deporting the illegals and no more handouts quite frankly is impressive. In an open primary where they aren’t in their clannish cliques because they are in a good ol’ boys club like in the countryside places like Iowa, Trump will smoke ’em.

    • Jim Davis

      Yep, the John Hagee-following nutvangelicals have an outsized presence in Iowa. If you don’t want to go to war with Russia for Israel, if in other words you are sane like Trump, they won’t vote for you. The “don’t touch my corn ethanol subsidy” “conservatives” are quite a joke too. I’m hoping more rational states will prevail.

      • krinks

        As a “Nutvangelical” myself I am embarrassed to see candidates giving sermons the way Cruz and Rubio did. If their lives reflected Christ and their word could be trusted they would not have to say it. It would be already well known.

        • Jim Davis

          Both of them are so transparently phony. I can’t believe ANYONE would buy into a politician claiming to be so religious. They reflect the doctrine of whatever electorate they seek to win over.

          • krinks

            Ditto. I get offended when I hear them preach just like as a Vet I get offended at the accolades on Veteran’s Day. Only a Clinton type needs to be pictured coming out of a church holding a Bible. Reagan never did.

      • jaxon64

        you do know that Iowa is predominately an egalitarian, socialist state right? Historically they are an anomaly in the Midwest as they vote liberal and have a deep seated hatred of banks, corporations, business or anything that does not further a strange farming collectivism…unique state and far from indicative in any way of “overall America”

        • jaxon64

          PS: I am also an evangelical, Bible believing Christian and I don’t support either the establishment Neocon Rubio or Ted “Goldman Sachs” Cruz…you don’t appear to know much about evangelical Christians as much as you relish the stereotyping brush you try and paint them all with.

          • Jim Davis

            It sounds like you are one of the few sane Iowa evangelicals, since you don’t support the neocons and recognize the hypocrisy of those who want “limited government” as long as it includes their farm subsidy welfare.

      • White Votes Matter

        Fox News hired an illegal alien Muslim activist to ambush Trump… and nobody among the GOP candidates objected to it.

        Fox News and National Review have tipped their hands showing everybody what they are doing behind their cards, may they go blind doing it…

        The anchor baby Ted Cruz won’t win.

  • chriscas

    Great, just great! I can just see it now…election night 2016, fat bottomed Karl Rove on Fox looking bewildered and blaming Trump and Cruz for Jeb’s or Kasich’s or maybe even Rubio’s defeat at the hands of President-Elect Clinton. We’re screwed folks!

    • Seen2013

      Hence the false choice by the Establishment GOP screwing the base over arguing they need to compete for solid Democrat voters who they have no hope of ever turning playing Wannabe Democrat Party. This tends to swing swing votes in favor of Democrats.

      If the Neo Democratic-Republican Party with the issues that polarized being resolved makes them very bipartisan on key issues:
      Public-private partnerships/mergers via Top-Down economic-political solutions aka Big Government
      Born to rule V born to be ruled and etc fail to present such a false choice; there is always eliminating the check and balance of the Electoral College to enable New York, California, and split the swing states in half eliminates choice just as effectively turning elections into a pure sham.

  • A.S.

    Where is your article on the TPP, which the not-my-president will sign on Thursday?

  • Barry Goldwater

    Ok Michael I have to take you on here and explain what you’ve failed to talk about.
    Trump for whatever reason failed to organize a 99 county precinct war naming captains and funding a ground war in retail politics which is the custom in Iowa depending entirely on a top down media and rally combination , he made a good showing but not enough to compete with the mailing lists furnished by AFR, a year long operation in Iowa and other Christian led groups. Combine this with his Cruz’s sly underhanded circulation of a rumor late yesterday that Carson was leaving the race creating a flock of votes to Cruz’s side . ( note he’s apologized for this today ).
    The bottom line is Iowa is heavily Christian Right dominated on the GOP side so this isn’t much of a surprise. The Christian Right doesn’t dominate the party nationwide so Cruz is not favored as much going forward.
    Now for Trump’s future . Trump has to get down to business meaning less showman and more substance to have any chance of winning, the situation is now down to votes and as American’s get serious he’ll have to do the same or quit.
    Clinton? I’m not counting her out either nor should you. Hillary Clinton is one of the smartest people on the political stage today with far more experience in politics than anybody else now running for President. Her experience in public life dates back to the early 70’s when she was a Legal Aid Attorney. Sanders will fare less well as the contest moves away from Iowa and the Northeast.
    I think you did get one thing right and that’s Trump has to win new Hampshire or there’s incredible risk he looks like fading candidate.
    One final footnote , keep in mind the Washington Establishment hates Cruz as much as they do Trump so going forward may be tougher sledding than the easy ride he had in Iowa which was his perfect made to order constituency.

    • jaxon64

      New Hampshire is a landslide with Trump 20+% ahead…and nobody expected him to win Iowa, the truth is he made little effort in Iowa.

    • sudyrand

      I think that you are giving Clinton too much credit for being smart. Everyone says that she’s the smartest person running. I just don’t believe that. If she was that smart, she wouldn’t have gotten caught up in the email scandal. First off, she is a controlling witch. She thought that if she could control her email, then no one would know about her corruption. Well that didn’t happen, instead it looks like she had email that was higher than Top Secret and could effect national security. She was trying to hide favoritism and taking money from foreign governments. Now she is under investigation for public corruption. Just just how smart was that? I think the only thing she is running for, is a jail cell.

      • iris

        Should be that way, imo, but look at all she’s gotten away with so far. Again, it’s all about the backing. We’re looking at dynasties here, not the will of the people, or justice.

  • horse777res

    Hey Michael! Ronald Reagan did not win Iowa the first time around. And the rest is history.

  • YH

    “The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election. The people who count the votes do.”

    – Joseph Stalin

    • iris

      Yep. And people control the electronic voting machines, which can be pre and re programmed and hacked.

      • YH

        Very true iris. It’s quite amazing to see the number of deceased voters who are miraculously brought back to life on voting day to cast their votes. What is even more surprising is the lack of outrage on the part of citizens when this criminality occurs. IMO any candidate who wins an election with the help of dead voters should be banned from politics for life.

        • iris

          Yep. Weren’t there even some pets’ names peppered here and there, too? Heck, the Headless Horseman is probably listed somewhere as a registered voter with SS# and burner phone.

  • kfilly

    If the average Republican couldn’t figure out they don’t get to choose a presidential candidate after Ron Paul got hosed, they are probably not sophisticated enough to vote.

    • jaxon64

      Good point–Michael, you actually posted ANOTHER lie accidentally.
      The 2012 Iowa Caucus was a TOTAL fraud…first they misannounced the winner–then they changed it to Santorum.
      SIX MONTHS later it became evident that they had intentionally misled the public so that Ron Paul would appear unelectable. In June of 2012 they finally conceded that Ron Paul had indeed been the winner of Iowa–but the damage had been done ( as well as intentional efforts by the Republican PACS and debates to not let him speak during the debates>)

      • jaxon64

        PS: also it is worth noting, only once in the past 20 years has the Iowa Caucus winner actually won their party’s nomination…..

    • iris

      Yep.

  • paul mullin

    How is this ‘The End of the American Dream?’ This blog post reads like CNN. Going a little mainstream nowadays Michael? Gimme EMP!! Gimme covert drone operations!! Donald Trump’s political analysis? Pfft..

    • Jim Davis

      Well that blood moon thing fizzled and the stock market isn’t crashing quickly enough, so…

  • Mistanick

    As the primaries begin to stack up, if the poll numbers don’t align with the vote, and it happens over and over again, there will be trouble. People are fed up with electioneering and your mainstream blog article here Michael just plays into the crooked hands of those who manipulate the vote.

  • Richard

    Thanks for a really clear explanation of how this works. I had never seen one before and, not being American, I had a hard time finding out.

  • sudyrand

    There are a couple of things we have to remember about Iowa. One is the dirty trick Cruz played on Carsons’ voters. And because of this, Cruz will probably drop like a rock. And two, Iowa hasn’t picked are real winner over the last 20 or so years. So what if Cruz won in Iowa, he did it by playing dirty tricks. Is that the kind of president we want as president?

    • iris

      Didn’t hear about a trick on Carson’s voters. Can you expound?

      • iris

        Never mind, just saw Barry Goldwater’s comment. Wow, that is a dirty trick. I like where Cruz stands on the issues, but if he’s going to pull that, hopefully, more people will hear the truth.

        • obey the constitution

          No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of 35 Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

          • iris

            Yes, I’ve heard about the question surrounding his eligibility to run, my problem is that O was able to sweep all that under the rug, and now the official position is that he was born in HI, but things still don’t add up. It all depends on the backing.

  • ruben sammich

    Microsoft is tabulating the votes…anything sinister there? In the end, the polls show trump as the front runner, regardless what these clueless. Delegates think or what the programmers at Microsoft think. What ever happens, I will pencil in the Donald if I must.

    • KEITH

      Don’t worry. Trump will win the nomination. Take a look at the remaining primaries and caucuses and he is ahead by a wide margin. Iowa is evangelical country and Cruz is an evangelical Christian. This will be the first and last win for Cruz. Besides the winner of Iowa rarely goes on to the nomination.

    • iris

      Or you have a choice. You can vote your conscience, rather than for what you think will be the lesser of two evils. If more people had been voting their conscience instead of buying off on the illusion of a two party system, when it’s really only been one since the 80s for sure, we might actually have made room for more parties. Then again, maybe many more of us have indeed been voting our consciences, but between the slanted polls, the mainstream media and the electronic voting machines and electoral college….. At any rate, I’m not falling for the establishment GOP’s c**p again.

  • krinks

    I think you are mistaken. Iowa is irrelevant seeing as how all one has to do to win there is show up and give the best sermon. Trump getting any level of support there is a major victory for him.

  • KEITH

    The article makes no sense. Ted Cruz was polling in the lead in Iowa for 90% of the campaign. What happened in Iowa was no surprise to me. Take a look at the remaining primaries and caucuses and Trump has the overwhelming lead. Besides, the winner in Iowa rarely goes on to win the nomination.

  • Ramcamedd

    Unfortunately Rubio can’t win. There are some ugly rumors being spread about him on gossip sites.

    • Rubio Reggie Love

      Born gay, as gay as the wind blows
      As gay as the grass grows
      Born gay to follow your heart

      Live gay and beauty surrounds you
      The world still astounds you
      Each time you look at a star

      Stay gay, where no walls divide you
      You’re gay as the roaring tide
      So there’s no need to hide

      Born gay, and life is worth living
      But only worth living
      ’cause you’re born gay!

      Stay gay, where no walls divide you
      You’re gay as the roaring tide
      So there’s no need to hide

      Born gay, and life is worth living
      But only worth living
      ’cause you’re born gay!

    • iris

      Such as? but more importantly, are there any facts or direct quotes to back the gossip up, that you might have heard?

    • iris

      I think Rubio and or Carson could absolutely win the GOP, and imo, one of them should, since Santorum, Huckabee and Paul, (real conservatives with track records to prove) have dropped out. Carson still came in 4th in Iowa, and in reality, did much better than that, because Cruz lied to Carson’s supporters about him dropping out, and they subsequently switched their votes.

      But it looks like the GOP will be backing Bush, and they’ve changed the rules of the game this year. I’ll be voting independent. The difference between voting for Bush and anyone on the Democrat ticket is so minute, why fall for that old shell game again?

  • DJohn1

    Excellent article on the decisions made in the back rooms.
    What they do not know will hurt them.
    For instance, Donald chooses a Vice President to run with him based on who is strongest next to him. The new vice presidential candidate then brings enough to the table to win out right.
    Or he brokers a deal. Meaning he pulls a Ronald Reagan and chooses a Vice President from the establishment line of candidates.
    Back lash on that is the Vice is one heart beat away from becoming President which leads to motivation to kill Trump.
    Happened all ready with Reagan. Only it failed big time.
    Reagan was wounded and never the same again.
    The prime suspect in such a case is the person who would win if he died. Never will see the light of day. Tracking back the same agency has been involved in a number of power plays like this.
    Donald might skip a candidate and pick the second best.
    Based on how clean that candidate is.
    Two candidates are up for election and they are dangerous.
    Donald Trump and the democrat Ben Sanders. Mainly because both are going after the pharmacy industry that is ripping folks off big time right now. Notice Obama is NOT doing anything about it.
    Once they own you, you stay owned.
    Meaning the big boys that are in D.C. own the game. Notoriously the religious Republican Party is owned body and soul by the people that finance them.
    But Republicans take the high and mighty high ground morally in the elections because of the abortion issue. That too is coming down. They are being judged on how they vote. Haven’t seen that since Nixon was a young man in California.
    He tore into the existing candidate based on his voting record rather than his speeches. The result was scary for D.C.
    The biggest weakness that a Ted Cruz has is not his birth place.
    The biggest weakness is his voting record.
    How many times did he abstain from voting when he could not win? The correct decision was to go down with the ship and vote anyway with his heart.
    Trump has no voting record to trounce. Just his big mouth and his speeches. IF I were writing an ad campaign against him I would go over every quote he ever made publicly while running.
    I would make sure he couldn’t get voted in as dog catcher much less President. But he said this and that and those quotes are a matter of public record.
    Lawyers run things. And Trump on more than one occasion has threatened law suits against those running against him if they come out and tell the truth about him.
    Having an unlimited amount of personal funds(billionaire) means the dogs of law are close on his heels ready and willing to suck up to whatever the man wants them to do.
    Law is seldom about justice. It is about money and he has plenty to throw around. Only time will tell whether he is a valid candidate or not.
    The bottom line here is whether or not he is a valid candidate.

  • Gay Veteran

    “…The Republican elite are desperate to have someone not named Trump or Cruz win the nomination….”

    why??? Cruz’s wife works for Wall Street banksters Goldman Sachs, and Cruz “forgot” to disclose a campaign loan from Goldman Sachs. he is a politicial wh ore like the rest of them

  • johmill

    Iowa has traditionally not followed the polls in its results. And Iowa’s results really mean very little. Since the GOP caucuses were started in 1976, only 3 winners of them have become the nominee. So, from the standpoint of meaning anything, Iowa does not mean much of anything.

    That said, Snyder’s point about a brokered convention is important. That is exactly how the establishment wants to try to force their candidate on us. Whether that will be Rubio or Bush or someone else remains to be seen, but they definitely want this to happen. If Trump remains ahead in the national polls as he has been, then if he is not the nominee it just will prove that the voters really have no say and that who governs us is determined by a small group of people in powerful places.

    • iris

      I so agree, but the polls can be very slanted, and who conducts them is a huge factor. The main stream media are for the most part, bought off by that small group of people in powerful places, and we are inundated with their daily bias, as well. People hear the result of one or two of these slanted polls, and assume they’re representative of the country as a whole, when often, it’s just the opposite. A great deal of the brokering is done through these kinds of polls and the MSM, to fool and condition. A case in point is the recent article Michael posted about the vast majority of tv, radio, magazines, theaters and newspapers in the U.S. being in the hands of 6 entities. Several years ago, I had heard it was only 2 entities, but either way, Info is definitely skewed.

  • iris

    Thanks!

  • diane

    Jeb appears to be on the verge of a nervous breakdown. Help him with it.