18 Numbers That Scream That A Crippling Global Recession Has Arrived

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Scream - Public DomainThe stock market has been soaring, but all of the hard economic numbers are telling us that a major global recession is here.  This is so reminiscent of what happened back in 2008.  Back then, all of the fundamentals were screaming “recession” by the middle of that year, but the equity markets didn’t respond until later.  It appears that a similar pattern is playing out right now.  The trade numbers, the manufacturing numbers, the inventory numbers and even the GDP numbers are all saying that a very significant economic slowdown is happening, but stock traders haven’t gotten the memo yet.  In fact, stocks had an absolutely great month in October.  Of course just like in 2008, stocks will eventually catch up with reality.  It is just a matter of time.  The following are 18 numbers that scream that a crippling global recession has arrived…


#1 According to the biggest bank in the western world, British banking giant HSBC, the world is already in a “dollar recession“.  Global GDP expressed in U.S. dollars is down 3.4 percent so far in 2015, and total global trade has fallen 8.4 percent.

#2 In September, Chinese exports were down 3.7 percent compared to one year ago, and Chinese imports were down a whopping 20.4 percent compared to a year ago.

#3 Demand for Chinese steel is down 8.9 percent compared to a year ago.

#4 China’s rail freight volume is down 10.1 percent compared to last year.

#5 In October, South Korean exports were down 15.8 percent from a year ago.

#6 According to the Dutch government index, a year ago global trade in primary commodities was sitting at a reading of 150 but now it has fallen all the way down to 114.  What this means is that less commodities are being traded around the world, and that is a very clear sign that global economic activity is really slowing down.

#7 U.S. exports are down 11 percent for the year so far.  The only other times they have fallen this dramatically since the turn of the century were during the last two recessions.

#8 Since March, the amount of stuff being shipped by truck, rail and air inside the United States has been falling every single month on a year over year basis.  If less stuff is being moved around the country, does that mean that economic activity is growing or declining?  The answer, of course, is obvious.

#9 The ISM Manufacturing Index, which is the most important measurement of U.S. manufacturing activity, has fallen for four months in a row.

#10 The Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Outlook has dropped for 10 months in a row.

#11 Wholesale sales in the U.S. have fallen to the lowest level since the last recession.

#12 The inventory to sales ratio has risen to the highest level since the last recession.  This means that there is a whole lot of unsold inventory that is just sitting around out there and not selling.

#13 It looks like a new housing slump is emerging in the United States.  Sales of previously owned homes fell by 2.3 percent in September.

#14 New home sales in the United States declined by a whopping 11.5 percent in September.

#15 Wal-Mart is projecting that its earnings may fall by as much as 12 percent during the next fiscal year.

#16 According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if the government was actually using honest numbers the unemployment rate in the United States today would be 22.9 percent.

#17 According to Challenger Gray, layoffs at major firms have risen to the highest level that we have witnessed since 2009.

#18 The number of job openings in the United States declined by 5.3 percent during the month of August.  That was a very large plunge for just one month.

None of the underlying issues that caused our problems back in 2008 and 2009 have been fixed.  Instead, we just became even bigger and bolder with our mistakes.  In the period between the last recession and today, we witnessed the greatest debt binge in the history of the planet.  Now a lot of that debt is starting to go bad, and the Bank for International Settlements says that their “dashboard of risk is flashing red”.  The following comes from a recent article in the Guardian entitled “Apocalypse now: has the next giant financial crash already begun?“…

This summer, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) pointed out that certain major economies were seeing a sharp rise in debt-to-GDP ratios, which were well outside historic norms. In China, the rest of Asia and Brazil, private-sector borrowing has risen so quickly that BIS’s dashboard of risk is flashing red. In two thirds of all cases, red warnings such as this are followed by a major banking crisis within three years.

And that is exactly what we are heading for.  Whether it happens next week or several months from now, the truth is that we are steamrolling toward another great banking crisis, and it will be worldwide in scope.

By the time that it is all said and done, I believe that the economic crisis that we are heading toward will be much worse than what we experienced back in 2008 and 2009.  The U.S. economy has never even gotten close to the level it was operating at prior to the last recession, and now the next crisis is upon us.

But until stocks crash here in the United States, most people are going to ignore all of the numbers above and will just keep pretending that everything is going to be just fine.

Just like in 2008, the irrational optimists are going to keep chanting their happy mantras for as long as they possibly can.

  • Jim Davis

    The government sector is doing fine. Reality never seems to catch up to government “workers”.

    • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

      That is true for now at least. :)

      • desert nudist

        One of the Rothschilds said something similar to this long ago:
        “I care not who rules a country, but let us control the money supply and we then control everyone.”

    • Lex loathar

      Yeah, surfing p@rn all day on their gubbermint supplied computers must be a tough job to do all day long.

    • Countryboy

      As long as we pay are taxes

    • tank

      It’s only doing well because it shifted from production to a surveillance society after 9/11. There is big money in surveillance of the sheep.

      • desert nudist

        To take out cameras all you need is a laser. It might even fry the cameras on spy satellites. Get a high powered laser and find out where it is & point in that direction. Of course it could take a very long time to point in the exact location of a camera that far away.

  • Countryboy

    The stock markets are still being subsidized and continue to climb.

  • William Lutz

    Hey Michael. When the crap finally hits the fan, your last blog entry should be titled “I Told You So”.

    • jafo

      The only real problem is the ‘Crying Wolf’ has been going on for so long people don’t believe it’s coming. When it finally does come. We will still get blamed. You screamed so many false warnings we didn’t believe you this time. Either way we loose.

      • William Lutz

        I understand that some doomsday predictions turned out to be wrong. However, that doesn’t annul the fact that we are TRILLIONS in debt, our infrastructure is deteriorating, so many are out of work and in poverty, we are becoming fat and stupid, we slaughter and torture babies, we have perpetual wars, and that the New World Order is running its course. That is a sign that we are living in a highly unstable society which must, and will, ultimately collapse.

        • jafo

          Will: I’m agreeing with you buddy. I see the same things u do. But the Sheeple out there is who I was referring to. Was it George Carlin that said: some folks make it happen, some watch it happen, while others ask what the ‘F’ just happened.


    Well, heres the thing, shemitah has arrived and gone. I’m not saying that libertarian and Austrian economists and forecasters are wrong, but in a world where central banks collude, all that matters are prices of currencies against eachother


      And of course interest rates

      • Kim

        That is it. The interest rates. They won’t raise them. I mean the fed. They can’t. It’ll implode the derivatives market.

    • jandr0

      [I’m not saying that libertarian and Austrian economists and forecasters are wrong…]

      Well, they – as a group – certainly did not forecast anything you imply, but clearly that does not stop you from spreading absolute hogwash.

      If you wish to defend your ridiculous assertion, kindly indicate exactly where “libertarian and Austrian economists and forecasters” AS A GROUP prophesied anything about supposed “shemitah.”

      Until you do, you speak, in one word: RUBBISH.

  • Countryboy

    Honker down, it looks like this going to be a bad one.

  • Arizona

    YOU GUYS better wakeup,EVERYTHING ended the minute that MISSILE HIT THAT RUSSIAN AIRLINER,full of newly married RUSSIA KIDS,and CHILDREN,you are completely screwed,PUTIN will not let this slide,he’ll bomb the crap out of america for that,and hes warned before he would,NOW YOUR FAVORITE TRAITOR has gone and done it,he’ll invade this country as sure as the sun sets and rises,GET FOOD WATER,AMMO,MEDICINE,YOU ABOUT TO SEE WAR IN THE STREETS OF AMERICA……….

    • jafo

      Mr Putin is not going to start an all out nuclear war over an airliner. Increased proxy war in the Middle East yes. Stand strong in the Ukraine, yup. Maybe start some actions in other areas, a distinct possibility.

      • Crisrose

        That’s why we had the ‘show of force’ over the weekend.

    • Uncle Scam

      Putin and Obama are on the same team..dude ..wake up.

  • How Not To Play The Game

    ………well the “biggest bank in the western world” launders dope proceeds for the beast and its minions. (somebody has to do something with all of that cash floodin’ in from Afghanistan opium) Since the street price for an ounce of opium blows precious metals to smithereens, it is no small wonder that the planet’s hard assets can purchased up by the fiat currency that dope generates. Using our military to safeguard the operation doesn’t seem quite fair.
    No doubt bankers own and finance the planet’s misery. The same recipe is used over and over and over.

  • John Noyb

    Not to mention government spending just increased by $339 BILLION on Monday. Geeze, by the time this guy is gone from office – they won’t even bother reporting numbers anymore – it really won’t matter (like it really does now though!).

  • Mistanick

    I am a realist, but you know, the world was supposed to end in September or was it October. It’s still here.

    Everywhere I go, I see people working hard and spending money. They go about their daily lives loving, living, praying, and doing what God wants them to do.

    Yes, we are to be wise, but not in horror all the time, Michael. God also tells us to be anxious for nothing, but you seem to make your life trying to make folks anxious for everything. I don’t get it.

    You and the hand wringers must really be a kick to have a meal with and I can’t imagine living with your anxiety 24×7.

    Walk by faith, not by sight.

    Liberals seem to have their act together more than conservatives and I am not a liberal. A somewhat well known radio personality and author Garrison Keillor ends his programs with the saying: “Be well, do good work, and keep in touch”. Certainly more meaningful than yelling fire in a movie theater.

    • How Not To Play The Game

      I don’t subscribe to the left/right paradigm. “Liberals have their act together more than conservatives”? All I know is that both parties at the top have worked together like fine oiled machinery to bring this nation to her knees. It has been no accident. It is an agenda. If folks that are sick and tired of getting lied to and legislated out of existence are hand wringers then so be it.

      • Mistanick

        Has there ever been a time when evil like we see today did not exist? The internet certainly makes such evil more apparent, but there is not anything that is new under the sun.

        My point was is that despite the false impressions that the Republicans are on one side and the Demos are on the other, call it liberal vs. conservative, they are basically at the high levels one the same side, marching in lock step with global powers we do not read about but know exists. Wringing hands about it does not help and is a false comfort.

        Who isn’t sick and tired of being lied to, but again, lies and deception have always been the norm in a fallen world.

  • barry oldwater

    Thanks for the tips, imagine what would be happening right now if gas was doubled what it is, I believe that it is the reason why we have not felt the crunch yet, it is basically half of what it has been for a decade now. Who said the world was going to end this fall I guess I missed that article.

  • merrileerj

    This is the 2d time I’ve read that goods aren’t moving around the country, that has also slowed way down. Why then, have the shippers (FedEx, UPS etc) said they are going to raise rates, with the stupid reason being that packages have gotten heavier (?) & they expect a large load at Christmas? So t hey’re lying, but if it really has slowed down why would they do this to themselves?

    • desert nudist

      The evil CEOs probably want more money. More people are buying stuff online so they’re probably taking advantage of the situation by charging more. They should be charging less to move stuff because gas prices have gone way down. Other costs are rising but with the steep drop in gas prices it makes up for it so there’s no excuse if they keep raising shipping costs.

      One company, Amazon, is renting? their own planes to bypass the greedy shipping companies but its definitely not enough competition to keep the other big wigs from raising prices.

  • MaxRockatansky33

    Dow Jones, S&P or Nasdaq are close to new record highs. Bubble is groving even bigger.