This is the most dangerous moment that we have seen in the Middle East in modern times. As you will see below, Israel has decided to hit Iran. There is still debate about whether it should be a devastating blow or a more limited strike. But in either case, the Iranians are pledging to retaliate. In fact, the Iranians are promising to respond to any attack with overwhelming force. Needless to say, that would certainly provoke another response from Israel. The cycle would continue until someone finally decides that enough is enough. But what if neither side backs down and the conflict escalates to an unthinkable level?
According to the Times of Israel, Channel 12 is reporting that the Israeli government has decided to hit Iran “clearly and forcefully”…
In an unsourced report, Channel 12 claims the war cabinet has made the decision to hit back “clearly and forcefully” against Iran for its missile and drone attack on Saturday night.
The response will be designed to send the message that Israel “will not allow an attack of that magnitude against it to pass without a reaction,” the report says. The response will also be designed to make plain that Israel will not allow the Iranians to “establish the equation” they have sought to assert in recent days. This appears to be a reference to Iran’s warning that future Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, including its international diplomatic premises, will henceforth again be met by Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel.
Of course that isn’t the only outlet that is indicating that a decision has already been made.
According to Axios, Yoav Gallant has told Lloyd Austin that Israel feels that it must respond to Iran’s attack on Saturday…
Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Sunday that Israel has no choice but to respond to the unprecedented missile and drone attack launched by Iran over the weekend, a U.S. official and another source briefed on the call told Axios.
And on Monday, Herzi Halevi publicly stated that Iran’s attack “will be met with a response”…
Israel’s war cabinet met Monday to discuss how and when to respond to Iran’s attack, which Tehran said was in response to the killing by Israel of a senior Iranian general at an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus, Syria. Israel hasn’t confirmed or denied involvement.
“We are looking ahead and considering our steps. The launching of so many missiles, cruise missiles and drones into Israeli territory will be met with a response,” said the head of Israel’s military, Herzi Halevi, during a visit to an Israeli air force base that was damaged by the Iranian attack.
Some news sources were suggesting that an attack was imminent, but that appears to be very unlikely.
The war cabinet is going to meet again on Tuesday, and any strike on Iran will almost certainly have to wait until some time after that meeting…
The war cabinet is scheduled to meet again tomorrow, the report notes, and Home Front command regulations have not been changed, indicating that an Israeli attack is unlikely to take place today.
But the clock is ticking, because Passover is coming up, and that is a major national holiday in Israel.
So I would expect something to happen well before then.
Many in Netanyahu’s coalition are getting restless, because they want to hit Iran extremely hard.
In fact, Itamar Ben-Gvir has said that it is time for Israel “to go crazy”…
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing base is already disgruntled that the ground operation in Rafah hasn’t taken place and doesn’t seem imminent, since Israel has pulled most of its soldiers out of Gaza. Israel is calling up two reserve brigades in the coming days for reinforcement in Gaza but will need more forces for any major operation. Now, Netanyahu’s supporters want a strong retaliation against Iran as well.
“To create deterrence in the Middle East,” Israel “has to go crazy,” Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s national security minister and a voice of Israel’s hard right, said on Sunday.
Failure to act against Iran or in Rafah could further harm Netanyahu’s already diminished political support, said Chuck Freilich, a former Israeli deputy national security adviser.
On the other hand, some Israeli leaders want to strike Iran without greatly escalating matters.
But it appears that Iran is poised to respond to any Israeli attack with tremendous force.
The new leader of the IRGC is saying that whenever Israel attacks Iranian interests anywhere in the region from now on the response will come from Iran itself…
The head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, said Sunday that Iran would respond to future Israeli attacks on Iran-linked targets from Iranian soil, potentially opening the door for escalatory responses from Israel. “We have decided to create a new equation and it goes this way: from now on if the Zionist regime anywhere attacks our interests, assets, figures and citizens, we will reciprocally attack it from the origin of Iran,” Salami told a state-run television station.
That is a major shift in Iranian strategy.
And Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has announced that if Israel strikes Iran directly, “it will face a response at least tenfold greater and of similar nature”…
It comes as Iran today vowed to launch ten times the amount of missiles in a fresh strike against Israel if it unleashes a retaliatory hit on Tehran.
The new threat could see 1,460 missiles hurled at Israel as world leaders hold their breath to see if an “uncontrollable war” breaks out in the Middle East.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council vowed to retaliate if Israel launches a counter-strike – for which IDF plans have already been drawn up.
The Council issued a chilling warning that said: “If the Zionist regime persists in its evil actions against Iran, by any means and to any extent, it will face a response at least tenfold greater and of similar nature.”
I believe that the Iranians are serious.
So if Israel strikes Iran, they will also need to be ready to deal with Iran’s response.
And this time around they won’t be pulling any punches.
According to one Iranian official, the response could even include a weapon that Iran has never used before…
The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, Abolfazl Amouei has stated tonight that Iran is prepared to utilize “A Weapon it has never before Used” if Israel decides to launch a Retaliatory Attack.
Sadly, I don’t expect either side to back down.
Israel will hit Iran, and then Iran will strike back.
And then it will officially be on.
Meanwhile, action continues to heat up on the northern front.
On Monday, there were more IDF airstrikes in southern Lebanon…
Israeli fighter jets struck additional buildings the IDF says are used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
The IDF says the Hezbollah sites were hit in the villages of Markaba and Majdal Zoun.
Troops also shelled areas near Jabal Blat with artillery to “remove a threat,” the army says.
And four IDF soldiers were reportedly wounded after a small group crossed over the Lebanese border…
Four Israeli soldiers were wounded Monday after a bomb was detonated inside Lebanese territory, in a rare moment where it appears the IDF was seeking to breach the border.
Hezbollah took responsibility for the explosion, saying it planted the bomb near the border. Hezbollah militants “planted explosive devices in the Tal Ismail area” inside Lebanon, and detonated them after Israeli soldiers “crossed the border,” according to a statement from the group.
The IDF subsequently acknowledged the four soldiers were injured, and it was reported by news wires as happening “hundreds of meters within Lebanon.”
One of the soldiers has been listed by the IDF as “severely injured” after the explosion was set off “in the area of the northern border” – according to the military statement.
Israeli army radio admitted that “Golani fighters carried out an operation near the border, tens of hundreds of meters away from Israeli territory,” and that the troops were injured “inside Lebanese territory.”
We have been waiting for this war for a very long time.
Now it is here.
Here in the western world, we will probably see enormous protests in our major cities and the price of gasoline is likely to go absolutely nuts.
But in the Middle East, the consequences could be much more severe.
The Iranians and the Israelis have both been preparing for this showdown for decades.
The Iranians would like to see Israel wiped off the face of the map, and the Israelis are absolutely determined to do whatever it takes to prevent that from happening.
In a conflict where the stakes are this high, it can be very easy to panic.
Both sides have some surprises up their sleeves, and unfortunately I have a feeling that it will not be too long before some of those surprises are finally unveiled.
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