Disaster For Donald Trump In Iowa And The Probability Of A Brokered Convention Just Went Way Up

Donald Trump Caricature - Photo from Max GoldbergThis isn’t how it was supposed to go for Donald Trump. Iowa was supposed to be the first in a series of convincing wins that would cement his status as the inevitable nominee of the Republican Party. But instead, Iowa dealt a very serious blow to Trump’s candidacy, and it threw the race for the Republican nomination wide open. Of course Trump is far from dead, but now New Hampshire becomes a must win for him. If Trump does not win in New Hampshire where he is heavily favored, he will be 0-2 and it will send the political sharks in the Republican Party into a feeding frenzy. As I will explain below, Trump needs to win at least 60 percent of the delegates before the convention to secure the nomination, and as I write this tonight it appears to be extremely doubtful that he will be able to do that. If he can only pull in 24 percent of the vote in Iowa, then he definitely does not have the overwhelming momentum that many people believed that he had. (Read More...)

How The Republican Establishment Can Keep Donald Trump From Getting The Nomination

Race For The Republican Nomination - Photo by Donkey HoteyIt is going to be much more difficult for Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination than most people think. In order to win the nomination, a candidate must secure at least 1,237 of the 2,472 delegates that are up for grabs. But not all of them will be won during the state-by-state series of caucuses and primaries that will take place during the first half of 2016. Of the total of 2,472 Republican delegates, 437 of them are unpledged delegates – and 168 of those are members of the Republican National Committee. And unless you have been hiding under a rock somewhere, you already know that the Republican National Committee is not a fan of Donald Trump. In order to win the Republican nomination without any of the unpledged delegates, Trump would need to win 60.78 percent of the delegates that are up for grabs during the caucuses and primaries. And considering that his poll support is hovering around 30 percent right now, that is a very tall order. (Read More...)

Ron Paul Could Still Win Enough Delegates To Deny Mitt Romney The Republican Nomination

Despite what you may have heard from the mainstream media, Mitt Romney does not have the Republican nomination locked up.  In fact, he is rapidly losing delegates that almost everyone assumed that he already had in the bag.  To understand why this is happening, you have to understand the delegate selection process.  Each state has different rules for selecting delegates to the Republican national convention, and in many states the “voting” done by the public does not determine the allocation of delegates to particular candidates at all.  And the truth is that delegates are the only thing that really matters in this race.  In state after state, the Ron Paul campaign is focusing on the delegate selection process with laser-like precision, and it is paying off big time.  At this point, there is still a legitimate chance that Ron Paul will be able to win enough delegates to deny Mitt Romney the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican national convention in Tampa.  If Romney does not have the 1,144 delegates that he needs on the first ballot, then it becomes a brokered convention and anything becomes possible at that point. (Read More...)

The New Republican Primary Rules Make It Possible For The Republican Establishment To Steal The Nomination From A Candidate They Don’t Like

New Republican primary rules are going to make it basically impossible for any candidate to wrap up the Republican nomination very early in 2012.  In fact, the new Republican primary rules make a “brokered convention” much more likely and they also make it much more likely that the Republican establishment will attempt to steal the nomination away from a candidate that they do not like.  How exactly they would do this will be discussed later in the article.  The key is that most Republican primaries and caucuses will now allocate delegates using a proportional system rather than a “winner take all” system.  Back in 2008, John McCain did very well in early “winner take all” primaries and wrapped up the Republican nomination very, very quickly.  Nothing like that will happen in 2012.  In fact, if the field remains crowded it is going to be very difficult for any candidate to accumulate more than 50 percent of the delegates by the time the Republican national convention rolls around.  As will be discussed later on in this article, that would move the power into the hands of the Republican establishment. (Read More...)