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How The Republican Establishment Can Keep Donald Trump From Getting The Nomination

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Race For The Republican Nomination - Photo by Donkey HoteyIt is going to be much more difficult for Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination than most people think. In order to win the nomination, a candidate must secure at least 1,237 of the 2,472 delegates that are up for grabs. But not all of them will be won during the state-by-state series of caucuses and primaries that will take place during the first half of 2016. Of the total of 2,472 Republican delegates, 437 of them are unpledged delegates – and 168 of those are members of the Republican National Committee. And unless you have been hiding under a rock somewhere, you already know that the Republican National Committee is not a fan of Donald Trump. In order to win the Republican nomination without any of the unpledged delegates, Trump would need to win 60.78 percent of the delegates that are up for grabs during the caucuses and primaries. And considering that his poll support is hovering around 30 percent right now, that is a very tall order.

In the past, it was easier for a front-runner to pile up delegates in “winner take all” states, but for this election cycle the Republicans have changed quite a few things. In 2016, all states that hold caucuses or primaries before March 15th must award their delegates proportionally. So when Trump wins any of those early states, he won’t receive all of the delegates. Instead, he will just get a portion of them based on the percentage of the vote that he received.

In 2016, more delegates will be allocated on a proportional basis by the Republicans than ever before, and with such a crowded field that makes it quite likely that no candidate will have secured enough delegates for the nomination by the time the Republican convention rolls around.

And this actually plays right into the hands of the Republican establishment. A dinner for prominent Republican leaders that was held in Washington D.C. last week discussed the possibility of a “brokered convention” if they can keep Trump from getting the required number of delegates during the caucuses and primaries. The following comes from the Hill

More than 20 top GOP officials discussed at a dinner on Monday the party’s strategy in the event of a brokered convention amid Donald Trump’s consistent lead in the polls.

Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Reince Priebus and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) listened as several longtime party members argued the establishment must lay the groundwork for a floor fight if Trump storms through the presidential primaries, five sources familiar with the meeting told The Washington Post.

The sources said Priebus and McConnell were mostly silent during the deliberation and did not signal support for an explicit anti-Trump effort.

What was extremely interesting to me was who was reportedly at this meeting. According to the Washington Post, key advisers to Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Mitt Romney were all there…

Attendees included Ward Baker, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee; Rob Simms, his counterpart at the National Republican Congressional Committee; Ron Kaufman, an RNC committeeman and Romney confidant; and pollster Linda DiVall. Whit Ayres, an adviser to Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), and Vin Weber, an ally of former Florida governor Jeb Bush, also were there, among others.

In the event of a “brokered convention”, it is almost inevitable that an establishment candidate would emerge as the nominee. That list would include names such as Bush, Rubio and Romney, and it would exclude names such as Trump, Cruz and Carson.

Unless the field thins significantly, it looks like it is going to be a real challenge for anyone to stockpile the required number of delegates before the convention at this point. Here is an analysis of the delegate math that candidates are facing that comes from Think Progress

Trump’s biggest asset is winner-take-all states. So long as he captures a plurality of the vote in these states, he wins every delegate that is up for grabs in the state. Although the GOP’s rules require states that wish to hold a winner-take-all contest to schedule their primary or caucus no sooner than March 15, eleven states and territories will have such a contest. Additionally, a handful of states allocate some portion of their delegates to the winner of the state as a whole. In total, Trump could win about 500 delegates in states that award a bloc of delegates to the candidate who wins a plurality of the vote.

Even if Trump captures every single one of these delegates, however, he would still need to capture over 700 of the nearly 2,000 remaining delegates in order to emerge as the nominee, and here is where the math gets much more difficult for him. Even if he captures every single delegate awarded to candidates who win a plurality of the votes in a state, he would still need to win approximately 37 percent of the remaining delegates to capture the nomination — under the various and often complex rules that each state uses to allocate these delegates. Currently, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows Trump leading the GOP field with about 30 percent of the vote, so his current polls likely do not give him enough support to capture the nomination outright.

When news of the dinner meeting of establishment Republicans in D.C. first came to light, it created a huge uproar. Needless to say, Donald Trump was not thrilled, and he is even hinting that he may stage an independent run if he is not treated fairly

“I’ve been hearing about these closed-door meetings and I don’t like that,” Trump told CNN’s “State of the Union With Jake Tapper.” “That wasn’t the deal I made. I signed a pledge, and the pledge was supposed to be a double deal. They were supposed to be honorable, so we’re going to find out. If it’s going to be that way we’ll have problems, but I hope it’s not going to be that way.”

And Ben Carson is another candidate that is saying that he may leave the Republican party if any back room deals are made…

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson again threatened to bolt the Republican Party on Sunday if leaders use a “back room deal” to decide the presidential nomination.

“If that is the case, then, you know, I’m out of here,” Carson said on ABC’s This Week.

Carson reacted to a Washington Post report last week that Republican Party leaders met to discuss the possibility of a “brokered convention” in which no candidate has the majority of delegates needed to win the nomination; they also reportedly discussed possible ways to stop GOP front-runner Donald Trump.

In the end, I would be absolutely stunned if any outsider candidate is able to walk away with the nomination. Politics in America is very dirty business, and the establishment will move heaven and earth to keep Trump, Cruz or Carson from coming out on top.

Yes, I know what the polls say right now, but I think that bookies have a much better feel for what the eventual outcome will be. After all, if they are wrong about these things it will cost them a tremendous amount of money. And according to the bookies, Marco Rubio is the heavy favorite at this point

But if you go to online betting sites, where people can wager real money on this stuff, you will get a very different impression of the race. Marco Rubio, who got just nine per cent in the CBS News/Times poll, is still regarded as the strong favorite to land the nomination. At some bookies, the odds of Rubio winning are just 5/4, meaning you have to wager forty dollars to win fifty. Trump is the second-favorite, but gamblers can still obtain odds of 3/1 (or even 4/1) on him being the candidate. Predictwise, an online site that combines information from the betting markets and the polls, reckons the likelihood of Trump winning is just twenty per cent, whereas the probability of Rubio winning is forty-one per cent.

Without a doubt, Rubio is starting to surge, but at this point it looks very doubtful that any candidate will secure enough delegates before the convention comes.

So in the end, we could very well see a “brokered convention” for the first time in decades, and the damage done to the Republican party by a brokered convention could potentially hand the general election to Hillary Clinton.

At least that is how I see things.

What about you?

How do you think that things will play out?

Please feel free to join the discussion by posting a comment below…

  • Rufus T Firefly

    Doesn’t matter, Hillary will be president will every cemetary in Chicago having 100% voter turnout.

    • greyprepper

      I’ve been waiting for Trump to announce that he will run as an independent for some time now. I wanted to believe he’s the real deal, but my first guess was that he was a just around to divide the Republican vote in order to ensure that Hillary is elected. Just my opinion.

      • Jim Davis

        That’s possible. Nothing would surprise me. Politics has become such a blatant fraud. I am actually hoping that Trump wins the primaries, but the establishment gives it to one of their boys. That would disillusion any rank and file Republican still naive enough to think that their party is an better than the Democrat one.

  • Richard

    To my mind, the most important task for America is to keep Hitlery out of the White House. Every other consideration pales in comparison.

  • Jorma

    If the national GOP party tries to pull this brokered nonsense off it will destroy the GOP forever. All of the traditional Republicans out here in the Midwest, the Moms and Pops who own the corner store, are watching this with extreme concern and they will go Independent if the GOP national tries to steal the primary. Isn’t this what Obama wanted anyway, for the GOP to dissolve? Who ever thought it would be the GOP themselves that are making this happen?

    • Joe Woolf

      sadly… it may not even matter….. at the rate illegals are coming and voting illegally…. it may not matter anyway.

    • William Lutz

      I’m pretty sure those bastards will. That is one major reason why I don’t support the GOP or the Democratic Party. They are both led by self serving hypocrites who are mainly focused on power and gain. A conservative better not tell me to support the NRP, because they are just as repulsive as the Dems are IMFAO. They are two teams in the same dirty game. I’d go third party or not vote at all, because I’m fed up with it. We need to destroy the whole political establishment.

  • VigilanteCaregiver

    Personally, Mike, I still believe we’re in a multi-sided (multi-faction) cold civil war. This election is not too different than most of ’em; it’s the people being so thoroughly divided that’s the problem – and many of us were betrayed by the powers-that-be on numerous occasions. I don’t think these political institutions will survive much longer.

    Every political party is a confederacy of tribes: Republicans used to be the party of Abolitionists and Jeffersonian idealists; Democrats were the party of imperials, slaveholders, and traditionalists; Green party the place for hippies and earth-first folks; Constitutional Party tried to be folks strictly about the founder’s ideals about the Constitution; Conservative Party was to be where disowned Republicans could live their views… none of these parties worked out the way they’re founded.

    Parties today are businesses of graft and power – nothing more. The viewpoint of Republican=Democrat, “two wings of the same bird” are not accurate: they actually are competitors; they compete for the donations, for wealth given for favors. Of course there’s divides among the citizenry regarding ideologies – makes good business. The problem with Trump, Cruz, and Carson gaining so much in the polls is a threat to the business. Constitution or not: they each view their collective will as the real power in the nation.

    Strangely enough if these parties are ruined beyond repair not many citizens would shed a tear in their memory (most are happy to feed them to the mountain lions); that’s why so few folks in the nation are counted as voting – they don’t care anymore. But the minority-interests that thrive on the party system will go to a hot civil war in desperate attempts to fill the power vacuum.

    If Trump wins there’s a good chance the business will be alright. I don’t think he’ll be detrimental to the donation scheme. The real problem for these folks is if Cruz wins – that’s what scares them the most. If Cruz wins, I would go so far as the Democrats and some Republicans would try some form of session or a coup.

    However this goes, when the rulers are pinched it’s the peasants who feel the sting. Best to insulate yourselves with a good year’s supply and as much off the grid as possible. Store away cash and metals. A variety of arms and ammo (trained for each one).

    • Jim Davis

      I think you overestimate Cruz. He’s just another politician. An Israel-firster too. I’ve had enough of those.

  • Joe Woolf

    It really is insane….. this kind of stuff….. and when you only consider gerrymandering districts etc. etc…. I have to say that this isn’t the country I used to know….. this government doesn’t represent anyone except itself.

    • Jim Davis

      It’s always been this way. “Our” government does not represent us. Do you think the Civil War, the Spanish American War, WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, Gulf War I or Gulf War II for fought “for the people”?

  • tacoma

    As soon as the GOP realizes that they cannot win the presidency without Trump, they will select him. It’s gaining power that matters, not policy, not solution, not people.

    As to Trump his strategy is abundantly clear. He survey the country and sees lots of trouble, conflict, irreconcilable differences. When this happens to a state two methods are frequently used by leaders to gain power: 1) The military takes over, the lead general becomes president, declares marshal law, and run things for some time. 2) The Hitler strategy: he blamed the whole 1930’s Germany mess on the Jews, Slaves and Gypsy. He offered a ‘complete’ solution based on overthrowing everything, and declared himself as the messiah. Similarly Trump blames the whole thing on Muslims and Mexicans, promises to overthrow the current order, and has already appointed himself as the wisest of messiah.

    Hitler in power proceeded to start WW2 in Europe. Will Trump start WW3 beginning with nuking the Middle East and Persian Gulf? Sure! Hitler was worshiped by Germany as god after he conquered France with such ease. Trump worship himself and love to be worshiped too. He would one-up GW’s invasion of Iraq by wiping out the Muslim. After the defeat of France Hitler saw no trouble with doing same with the USSR, which became his demise 4 years later. A WW3 nuke war started by Trump can bring unpleasant consequences. How about Russia, China & India, all major nuclear power, decided that Trump’s America is too dangerous and proceeded to wipe it out?

    • Jim Davis

      Actually Trump has said he would work with Putin and sided with him against our “friends” the Turks. Trump would be the least likely of the Republicans to start WWIII. Cruz, Rubio, Fiorina and most of the rest have said they’ll take their marching orders from Bebe Netan-yahoo. Now they scare me!

  • http://msgdaleday.blogspot.com Dale Day

    Do you really think the GOP
    “establishment” is so stupid that it would do the things cited in
    this piece?

    Why not! They did it to us
    with McCain/Palin and Romney/Ryan. This basically echoes what I’ve
    been reading in other sources and there appears to be a consensus
    this is true. Is there anything the common guy and gal can do to stop
    it?

    Well, this may sound simple
    but why not become more involved in local political organizations?
    Sign up for and attend meetings of your local political party. Put
    yourself forward as a convention delegate. Push for honest candidates
    at the local level. Get involved!!!

  • DJohn1

    The manipulation is not the real problem. The real problem is it has gone public. Meaning that if they do not go with the candidate with the most votes then they have shot themselves in the foot.
    No one will ever trust them with anything at all ever again. Because it is all in the name the party has earned and it is not good.

    IN the past, when old poiltical parties got so corrupted that everyone knew what was going on, new parties with new people took their place. Historically this happened many times between 1776 and 1900.
    Now the parties have set rules in the states that keep new political parties from getting anywhere.
    Been going on for a very long time.
    The sham of two parties was deliberately set up to enhance the image of contention between the parties. Yet it doesn’t work because everyone with any intelligence can see it is a scam.
    Donald Trump can have all the popular votes he wants and still lose.
    Because in the end it comes down to the Electorial College.
    After the first vote, they can do what ever they want. Thus, even though a candidate has the popular vote, that candidate may not ever become President if those that control the college deem it not to be.

  • Robert

    Anyone who believes that politics and corruption is somehow worse today than throughout our history knows nothing about history. There has never been honor and ethics in politics at any time. The only difference nowadays is media and that is as rotten as the political establishment.

  • Kent Harris

    Trump is the clear leader and I would take up arms and join like minded people to put him in the White House. If this country becomes like the Ukraine and other despot countries then so be it. Live free or die.

    • Jim Davis

      You don’t have to wait for it to become that way. It already is.

  • Mistanick

    Message to RNC, folks don’t care a lick what you think or do. Get that? Establishment politics is off this cycle. Obama and the Dems and Rino’s who have supported him have caused so much destruction, folks don’t care about you any more.

    Folks are looking for an outsider, someone who is not “establishment”. Should you choose to force an establishment candidate on them, they will not win. You will not win.

    Election of Obama for TWO terms has destroyed party politics for now.

    Even more funny is the dog and pony show from the Repub’s who think THEY are the answer to make things right. What a joke.

    Come’s Trump. Not a conservative, a business man. Maybe contrived and made up to distract, maybe. Folks liked him and still do despite his mistakes, because WE ALL have mistakes. His supporters identify with him, like him, and support him. Ditch him, and they will ditch YOU, stay home, and let you all die on the vine.

  • greanfinisher .

    Regardless of how things play out, we’re not liable to get any Teddy Roosevelt in the White House.

    • Jim Davis

      At least we can thank God for that. Terrible Ted’s stupid war gave us the “gift” of Puerto Rico. It’s the gift that keeps on…taking!

      • greanfinisher .

        On the surface at least, Teddy apparently had an insatiable (perhaps wreckless)appetite
        for war regardless of the costs. I don’t suppose that all of this celebrated valor of his had anything to do with protecting American interests in those Carribean nations? You know: the plantations, maritime industries, hotels, mining companies, etc.etc.
        What I was actually referring to was his role as a trustbuster rather than an empire builder.

  • Jim Davis

    The best quote that captures the situation is from Mark Twain:

    “If voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it.”

  • William Lutz

    It is highly probable that Trump could win the Republican nomination, given his upper rank in the polls and his publicity. However, there are a few factors that could hurt his chances of becoming the primary candidate. The fact that he doesn’t have enough delegates backing him up can get him in a tough spot against the other candidates. Furthermore, you have to consider that our voting system is very corrupt; it is just a game of big politics controlled by the elite. Also, despite of the high number of Trump supporters, there are many people who will attempt to tarnish his reputation. Spewing inflammatory remarks and proposing radical ideas could decimate his candidacy.

  • William Lutz

    By the way, Hillary is also soaring in the polls, so there is also a high chance that she could be our next president. We know that if she wins the general election, that would be a total nightmare.

  • JB-Stoner43

    The Republican Establishment is like a drug addicted and alcoholic musician or a hollywood actor or actress. They self implode and self destruct. The Democratic will just sit back and watch with excitement. All they do attack and criticize one another.

  • Preacher62

    As long as you continue to look to politics and nationalism to solve the problems in this country, that is how long you will continue to be deceived, disappointed and dismayed. “Seek ye first the kingdom of God and his righteousness and whatever you need will be given to you.” And no the two (God and Country) cannot be worshipped at the same time. That is what is known as spiritual adultery.

  • Iarwain Benadar

    My bet: Trump will get the nomination. Cruz will be his VP.
    We’re several months out from the convention and anything could happen in the meantime. What I do know is that most Americans are strung out on debt; the majority make less than 30K per year; and there are hundreds of millions of people in the US who want to work that are well-educated and experienced but are unemployed or severely under-employed.

    China just established a rival to World Bank (The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which even our allies are supporting.

    In the end, it probably doesn’t matter who gets elected as the Head Deck Chair Straightener on the Titanic that is the USA — the election is just another “reality show” to distract the population from the workings of the oligarchic plutocracy that actually controls everything.

  • Lazarovic

    The Republicans ignored and even perpetuated the economic plight of the white working class, while baiting them with dog whistle issues to get their votes. To their discredit, these same voters took the bait, not wanting to admit their champions were really slitting their throats, so to speak, economically. Now the painful betrayal is plain to see, the Dems are saying “we told you so”, and the white working class voter is embarrassed and ashamed for being played for a fool. He now seeks revenge on the Republican party by voting for a fascist, in retribution for being ignored and betrayed. If the Republican party establishment, bought and paid for by the wealthy, continues to ignore the white working class, really all working class people, this kind of rebellion will succeed and Trump will win. These voters cannot turn to Democrats, which would be in their best interests, because that would be admitting your opponent was right all along, and they’d rather suffer than do that. So, for them, Trump is the only option.

  • OurGov IsCorrupt

    20+ REASONS WE KNOW CRUZ IS GOP ESTABLISHMENT

    1.Cruz started working for establishment in college with Obama in 1994. College: Harvard. Professor: Laurence Tribe.

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2013/11/10/ted-cruz-was-polarizing-figure-harvard-law-foreshadowing-his-partisan-profile-senate/gEUPs0iVgOyoidafkNe94H/story.html

    2. 1999-2003, Cruz works as the director of the Office of Policy Planning at the Federal Trade Commission.

    https://www.ftc.gov/about-ftc/biographies/ted-cruz

    3. Cruz worked as Solicitor General of Texas under Greg Abbott 2003-2008

    https://www.linkedin.com/in/cruzted

    4. 2013 Ted Cruz joins the republicans at the NRSC to ensure establishment republicans stay in power

    http://www.nrsc.org/about/

    5.Ted Cruz on His Wife’s Connection to the Council on Foreign Relations

    http://freedomoutpost.com/2015/03/never-before-seen-footage-ted-cruz-speaks-about-his-wifes-connection-to-the-council-on-foreign-relations/

    6. Council of Foreign Relations lists Heidi Cruz on website for North American Union

    CFR: HEIDI S. CRUZ is an energy investment banker with Merrill Lynch in Houston, Texas. She served in the Bush White House under Dr. Condoleezza Rice as the Economic Director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council, as the Director of the Latin America Office at the U.S. Treasury Department, and as Special Assistant to Ambassador Robert B. Zoellick, U.S. Trade Representative. Prior to government service, Ms. Cruz was an investment banker with J.P. Morgan in New York City.

    http://www.cfr.org/canada/building-north-american-community/p8102

    7.Ted & Heidi Cruz and the North American Union

    http://www.dcclothesline.com/2015/04/04/can-you-handle-the-truth-ted-heidi-cruz-and-the-north-american-union/

    8.Ted Cruz’s closest advisors work for the CFR

    http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/21764-ted-cruz-s-closest-counsellors-are-neocon-cfr-vips

    9. Cruz pushes Agenda 21 wetland project:

    https://themarshallreport.wordpress.com/2016/01/05/cruz-pushes-agenda-21-wildlands-project/

    10. Cruz Supports Giving Fast Track Authority on Trade to Obama

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cozMqBTMI9Y

    11.Ted Cruz proposes “Legal Status for 11+ Million Illegals, Double Legal Immigration”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDnuWLuAbCw&feature=youtu.be

    12. Ted Cruz says he will NOT deport illegals.

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cruz-no-deportation-force-in-my-white-house/ar-CClGwB

    13. Ted Cruz was for Anchor Baby Birthright Citizenship

    http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/01/07/the-most-consistent-conservative-ted-cruz-2011-vs-2015-on-birthright-citizenship/

    14.Ted Cruz proposes increase H-1B visas(foreign workers who take our jobs) from 65,000 to 325,000 annually

    http://www.americanbazaaronline.com/2015/03/23/ted-cruz-wants-to-increase-h-1b-visas-from-65000-to-325000-annually/

    15. Ted Cruz proposes minimum H-1B(foreign workers who take our jobs) wage increase from $100,000 to $110,000.

    http://www.computerworld.com/article/3014365/it-careers/sen-ted-cruz-wants-minimum-h-1b-wage-of-110-000.html

    16.Ted Cruz supports US taking more Syrian refugees

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-nLXGoSjpg

    17.Ted Cruz was against Ethanol subsidies but for Big Oil subsidies

    http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/01/06/professional-pandering-desperate-cruz-dependent-on-iowa-flip-flops-on-ethanol-subsidies/

    18.Ted Cruz Demands Federal Money For Texas Floods After Blocking Hurricane Sandy Relief

    http://www.politicususa.com/2015/05/27/ted-cruz-demands-federal-money-texas-floods-blocking-hurricane-sandy-relief.html

    19. Cruz voted with Democrats/establishment on spending plan

    http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/25/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html

    20. Cruz voted with democrats/establishment for CISA

    http://www.libertyconservatives.com/ted-cruz-doesnt-read-cisa-votes-anyways/

    21. Cruz refuses to attend Audit the Fed vote

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/01/ted-cruz-skips-vote-federal-reserve-audit/

    22. Ted Cruz defends scheme to stop Trump at brokered convention: “It’s not cheating”

    http://www.mofopolitics.com/2015/12/12/team-cruz-its-not-cheating-to-use-brokered-convention-to-stop-trump/

    23. Ted Cruz top contributors: Big Banks, Big Oil, Big Lawyers..

    https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/industries.php?cycle=2016&cid=N00033085&type=I&newmem=N

    24. Ted Cruz gets money from BANKSTERS Goldman Sachs and Citibank.

    http://us.blastingnews.com/news/2016/01/ted-cruz-campaign-in-serious-trouble-potentially-violated-federal-election-rules-00732507.html

    #Cruz #GOP #RNC #establishment #globalist