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Did Turkey Just Declare War On Syria?

The Turkish Parliament has “authorized military operations” against Syria.  So exactly what does that mean?  Did Turkey just declare war on Syria?  For now, the government of Turkey is making a clear distinction between “military operations” and “declaring war”.   If Turkey were to “declare war”, that would likely involve Turkish troops actually entering Syria, and the war would not be considered “won” until certain objectives are achieved.  So by just authorizing “military operations” against Syria, Turkey can sit back and fire off artillery rounds (and potentially call in air strikes if necessary) without being committed to entering Syria or attacking Damascus.  Turkey is not too keen on invading Syria by itself anyway.  Turkey would want the help of NATO in such an event, and right now Barack Obama has made it abundantly clear to the Turkish government that he is not going to participate in an attack on Syria before the election.  Obama has been leading in the polls and he has way too much to lose by starting another war.  But what all of this does show us is a couple of things.  First of all, once again we see that the Middle East is a tinderbox that can erupt at any moment.  Second of all, just the rumors of a war between Turkey and Syria sent the price of oil absolutely skyrocketing on Thursday.  It is frightening to imagine what a real war in the Middle East might do to the price of oil.

So what precipitated this move by Turkey?  Well, some mortar shelling that originated from inside Syria killed five people living in a town in Turkey near the border.  The following is from a Fox News article….

Turkey’s Parliament authorized military operations against Syria on Thursday and its military fired on targets there for a second day after deadly shelling from Syria killed five civilians in a Turkish border town.

For its part, Syria admitted it was responsible for the shelling that killed five people in Turkey and formally apologized for the deaths, a top Turkish official said.

There are reports that the Turkish response was actually much stronger than the mainstream news has been admitting.

According to Debka, the Turkish military was hitting Syrian military targets with “continuous artillery barrages”….

Constrained from a substantial military incursion into Syria by US President Barack Obama’s veto and Saudi and Qatari refusals to help pay for it, Turkey’s government and military decided to make do with carving out a buffer strip 10 kilometers deep into Syria by continuous artillery barrages.

Thursday morning, Oct. 4 at 0300 GMT, Ankara ordered the Turkish army to keep up its cross-border shelling of Syria after the first bombardment Wednesday night in response to the deaths of five Turkish civilians and eight injured by Syrian mortar shells which exploded in their village.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report the artillery squads were told to aim primarily at Syrian military targets inside this strip, including bases, outposts and Syrian forces on the move.

Several Syrian bases and outposts have been hit so far and a large number of Syrian soldiers killed or wounded. Neither Ankara nor Damascus is offering information on casualties. They have imposed a heavy blackout on events so as to keep them under control and avoid the risk of a full-blown war.

Many believe that this could end up being the excuse that NATO will use to intervene in the conflict in Syria.  Since the uprising against President Bashar Assad began, approximately 30,000 people inside Syria have been killed.  It has been a very bloody conflict.

But Syria is not alone.  The Assad regime still has plenty of friends.  In fact, there have been reports that both Hezbollah and Iran have been moving forces into position to help defend Syria.

That is one reason why it is so important to keep a close eye on this conflict.  What is starting out as a conflict between Turkey and Syria could end up drawing in the United States, the rest of NATO, Iran, Hezbollah and potentially even several other countries in the Middle East.

And if war erupts in the Middle East, the price of oil is going to go through the roof.

Just look at what happened on Thursday.  The price of oil jumped about 3 dollars as reports of what was happening between Turkey and Syria reached the financial markets.

So what would happen if a full-blown war in the Middle East took place and the flow of oil was significantly disrupted?

That is a bit frightening to think about.

Sometimes we need a reminder of just how fast things can change.  For example, thanks to a couple of temporary refinery problems in California the price of gasoline in that state is spiking and some gas stations are actually shutting down for a while.

The average price of a gallon of gasoline in California increased by 8.3 cents on Wednesday alone.  It is now sitting at $4.315, which is about 53 cents above the national average.

According to Bloomberg, the refinery problems are causing gasoline shortages and quite a few gas stations are actually shutting down their pumps for now….

Gasoline station owners in the Los Angeles area including Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) are beginning to shut pumps as the state’s oil refiners started rationing supplies and spot prices surged to a record.

Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) stopped selling gasoline on the spot, or wholesale, market in Southern California and is allocating deliveries to customers. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) is also rationing fuel to U.S. West Coast terminal customers. Costco’s outlet in Simi Valley, 40 miles (64 kilometers) northwest of Los Angeles, ran out of regular gasoline yesterday and was selling premium fuel at the price of regular.

And according to Fox 5 San Diego, some gas stations are being told that there will not be any more gasoline until mid-October….

Dave Hallak, owner of Emerald Oil at 5600 Baltimore Drive, received a call Wednesday morning from his gasoline supplier saying he won’t be getting more gasoline until mid-October.

“My supplier said there’s no gas available in San Diego,” said Hallak. “He said ‘all the racks are down in Southern California and there’s very tight supply, if any.’”

Of course these problems are just temporary and things should get back to normal soon.

But what if a major war in the Middle East disrupted the supply of gasoline for an extended period of time?

Our world is becoming increasingly unstable, and an event on the other side of the globe can change all of our lives in an instant.

Let us hope for peace in the Middle East, but let us also get prepared for the day when war will inevitably come.

  • K

    “Did Turkey Just Declare War On Syria? Syria had better hope not. The Turks would roll over them, in short order. As to the oil being cut off. That happened back in the seventies, during the Arab oil embargo. It was unpleasant, but we got through it. However, if you rely on heating oil, or similar fuels to stay warm. I would not wait much longer, to get that tank filled.

  • Seen

    “The Turkish Parliament has “authorized military operations” against Syria. So exactly what does that mean? Did Turkey just declare war on Syria? For now, the government of Turkey is making a clear distinction between “military operations” and “declaring war”.”

    It’s simply a technicality. Technically, Turkey’s Parliament authorizing military operations into Syria constitutes a declaration or act of war against Syria, but it’s Military options have been minimized to largely ranged weaponry like Aircraft, Artillery, and etc. To put it another way, Turkey’s government has authorized attacking Syrian installations/infrastructure through military projective powers without backing up with physical projection and thus incapable of taking the weakened positions in the name of Turkish forces. It also means that the FSA (Free Syrian Army) possesses a rather indirect line of projective support in northern Syria.

    I also note that this article doesn’t highlight Israel’s increased security mounting and mobilization along Syria’s southern border.

    I would also point to a previous article in which I strongly disagree that Russia severed military ties with Syria by deploying its fleet out of the harbor in I believe it was Tantis. Prime example is during World War II, Great Britain had managed to catch Axis Power’s navy anchored at a harbor somewhere near Sicily that the Japanese had watched with great interest and used that same daring raid tactics at Pearl Harbor. Russia’s removal of its ships in port doesn’t indicate a severing of military ties with the region only possessing Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah being largely friendly relatively near its long southern underbelly as much as it means Russian naval officers didn’t want its southern naval interests essentially caught with its pants down in port. Russia’s first line of defense in the region was simply at risk of being destroy, and this would hinder its supply of interests.

    In strategic abstract, it seems that the objective here is to prepare for military intervention/no-fly zone by other means than by the UN Security Council to topple Syria’s present governing regime, and this also removes the western threat of a pincer movement between Syria and Iran in the event of a US/NATO confrontation with Iran, which seems to be blooming. Hezbollah and Iran’s positioning seems to strongly indicate that this strategic threat is being acknowledged, and they’re making movements to attempt to counter.

  • http://www.survive2balive.com GA

    Turkey would like nothing better than to have influence over the entire region. Gul is Obama’s NATO buddy. Watch the other hand on this one.

  • Piglet

    [What is starting out as a conflict between Turkey and Syria could end up drawing in the United States, the rest of NATO, Iran, Hezbollah and potentially even several other countries in the Middle East.]

    The US won’t be “drawn in” to a war in Syria any more than Ireland, Sweden or Switzerland. Our Glorious, Gifted Leaders will attack quite happily and willingly. There is nothing involuntary about any of this.

  • Dave Webb

    This is the best news in years. That means that we are going to have to divorce ourselves from the Middle East Oil. Sorry about that Big Oil. It has been coming for a long time now. It is time to start looking at alternate supply lines. Like yesterday would be good.
    I suggest they start looking for South American Oil as a replacement. Or the Canadian Oil Reserves in Shale Oil. Or upgrade the supply from off the Falkland Islands that promises to be as big as Saudi Arabian Oil.
    I agree that Turkey has a much better handle on military operations. They will clean up big time. But it will be with a lot of bloodshed. I believe the Turkish Forces believe in big knives as well as rifles.
    More important, you have two nations with a similar religious background so no one can accuse them of Western leanings.
    I suggest we maintain neutrality. That is difficult. But we can supply Turkey with food and arms if they need it. Pass the ammunition. Stay as far from the actual battleground as possible. Take advantage of any discounts the rest of the nations want to give us on our oil supply.
    The wisest thing both countries could do, is settle their differences peacefully. Not going to happen though, so they have to experience the mistakes of history rather than learning from them.
    This could actually solve the bankrupt currency situation! We could have money pumped our way for a change.

    • Malcolm Reynolds

      “Sorry about that Big Oil. It has been coming for a long time now. It is time to start looking at alternate supply lines. Like yesterday would be good.”

      You do realize that big oil would love to tap American resources but big govt enviro nutbags wont let them do that?

      • Gay Veteran

        what % of the world’s oil do we use and what % of the world’s oil reserves are in the U.S.?

        figure it out

    • mark

      I would suggest that we drill in our own country first. This would produce great paying jobs and it is ours.

  • joe12man12

    things are heating up much worse in the mid east. When Syria gets out of control and spills over into other areas then the Poop will hit the fan and it is
    gonna splatter all over everyone. the capital of Syria Damascus will be a heap of ruins and no longer
    be a city.

  • SMASH THE CONTROL MACHINE

    YES!! SAID IT BEST DURING VIETNAM WAR!!!Yesterday a morning came, a smile upon your face
    Caesars Palace, morning glory, silly human race
    On a sailing ship to nowhere, leaving any place
    If the summer change to winter, yours is no disgrace

    Battleships confide in me and tell me where you are
    Shining, flying, purple wolfhound, show me where you are
    Lost in summer, morning winter, travel very far
    Lost in musing circumstances, that’s just where you are

    Yesterday a morning came, a smile upon your face
    Caesars Palace, morning glory, silly human, silly human race
    On a sailing ship to nowhere, leaving any place
    If the summer change to winter, yours is no

    Yours is no disgrace, yours is no disgrace, yours is no disgrace

    Death defying, mutilated armies scatter the earth
    Crawling out of dirty holes, their morals, their morals disappear, yeah

    Yesterday a morning came, a smile upon your face
    Caesars Palace, morning glory, silly human, silly human, silly human race
    On a sailing ship to nowhere, leaving any place
    If the summer change to winter, yours is no
    Yours is no disgrace, yours is no disgrace, yours is no disgrace

    Battleships confide in me and tell me where you are
    Shining, flying, purple wolfhound, show me where you are
    Lost in summer, morning winter, travel very far
    Lost in musing circumstances, that’s just where you are!!THE SHINING,PURPLE ,FLYING,WOLFHOUND NOW IS A DRONE!!!!Death defying, mutilated armies scatter the earth
    Crawling out of dirty holes, their morals, their morals disappear, THEIR MORALS DISAPPEAR!!TO ALL YOU WAR PIGS!!!YOURS IS NO DISGRACE???http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFOOQ8e5J3A

  • SMASH THE CONTROL MACHINE

    silly human, silly human, silly human race

  • James

    Well the U.S. has figured out a way to get its fingers into the Syrian quagmire without actually getting into a full, outright war. They are letting Turkey take care of it for them until the elections are over. Russia has explicitly warned the U.S. and Europe to stay out of Syria. I wonder what will happen after the elections? Get ready for WW III.

  • mark

    I am ready as I just stocked up my diesel tanks. 1500 gals of #2 and we can drive our diesel jetta sportwagon for a few years with that. Stocked up 600 gals of red diesel for the tractor.

  • OldPhart OutIn TheDesert

    Did Turkey Just Declare War On Syria?

    Yep.

    And when Syria responds in desperation and sends troops into Turkey, we’ll get to be in War again due to NATO alliances.

    To Syrian Victorov (in the facebook comments above) Damn, sorry dude…but this is going to drag all of us to a shit sandwich and each of us will have to take a bite. I don’t want it, you don’t want it, but my particular government seems to have a hardon over killing brown people…you are the latest brownie. I don’t wish it on you, or want it on you, but I’m damned glad I’m NOT you (at least for now).

    Rest assured that your death will be avenged by the deaths of millions of ordinary americans that our police state has identified as potential terrorists…I suspect I will be among them.

    We, normal, rational, thinking people here in America wish no harm to you, your family, community, children, infrastructure or any form of sane government. Unfortunately we have an insane government and we have lost control of it.

    Please ask your children and grandchildren to hold the average american harmless in this genocide of you and yours.

    By all means, take your vengence on our elite and our government, we see the rationality in that.

    The majority of us are as disgusted with our leadership as you are, though we won’t be paying the penalties as rapidly as you will. But we wil be paying soon.

    Need an address or phone number to one of our governmental leaders, I’m sure there are people here that know them. Afterall, we have a ‘representative’ government, which means we know where our representatives actually live. It shouldn’t be too hard to track their daily affairs since there’s about 200k of us versus 1 of them…there’s a lot of unemployed, OCD types, here that would love such a mission.

    Most of us here are armed, though we won’t admit it, and a similar most would be delighted to take out a banking target with a minimum of cost. Just get one of us there and point at the target. Pay our lifetime beer and taco costs and you’ve got a successful mission.

    We have a cultural aversion to killing our politicians, but I suspect that will be eliminated over the next few months. In the meantime, however, there are literally scores of americans that would be happy to point out the routines and actual politician as they move around the area. We also know where the police, sheriff and fusion centers are…just ask, though we’d prefer our police and sheriff deputies be held rather than killed. They just need a bit of reeducation on our constitution.

    For those that brought the horrow of war to you and your family…they are at the civilian federal level. They are mutual enemies, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Syrain people, and people of the world are the friend of americans.

    It’s our governments that need to go.

  • Gay Veteran

    Gerald Celente says the the first great war of the 21st century has already started.

    Just look at the horrible mess we have in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and now Syria.

    No war profits without war.

    • PALESTINA

      War in Afghanistan started today on October 7, 2001 when we invaded 11 years ago and greatest mess is still in there on the battlefield — am opposing this war since its declaration but politians in Washington want to start another war in Iran. Americans shall not fall for media’s crap and buy time to practice its rights to stop the war based on “Iran obtaining nuclear bomb.” Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq shall teach us what the consequence of a war is.

  • Gay Veteran

    and without fear the government cannot accumulate more and more power while our liberties die

    • PALESTINA

      9/11 led to Patriot Act crashing into our trade center — the Constitution. Alex Jones is a paranoid man but spews conspiracy theories that are close to America’s case. Our government is spraying is with chemtrails from the airplanes to change weather — and apparently to a drought. FBI agents are monitoring photographer for taking pictures of the weather and Homeland Security — CIA and FBI as well — are spying on facebook to crack down “terrorism and threat to national security.” NDAA is hijacking our rights, who was part of or substantially supported al-Qaeda, the Taliban, or associated forces that are engaged in hostilities against the United States or its coalition partners.” But, instead we shall stay out of conflicts in the Middle East because war between Sunni and Shi’ites is a grave threat to us and our economy — both in Syria and Iran. In what branch did you serve in the military?

  • http://christnotreligion.blogspot.com DL.

    Honestly most folks on here make me sick! To hell with the lives of millions of real people (I guess because they’re Muslims…who gives a crap about a bunch of ragheads, right? Babies, old folks, women and children…past and future “terrorists” right?), as long as we superior westerners don’t have to pay more for oil.

    Want to know why the US is being foresaken by God (as so many claim on here)? Because hatred is too much a part of the American psyche. Jesus said it: love your enemies…and there is a ********** good reason He said it!

    When are you selfish, and self-righteous, so-called Christians gonna wake up? When you are “raptured”?

  • A Dodgy Bloke

    Zero Hedge has a couple of articles about the goings on the Turkish Syrian border, today (BTW they’re doing a bang up job). The Turks have moved 25 F-16 fighters to the Syrian border. With the Russians, Iran and China on one side, NATO the Sunni backers of the rebels on the other am I the only one seeing shades of August 1914?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-14/more-middle-east-escalation-turkey-syria-bar-flights-over-each-others-airspace

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-09/turkey-deploys-25-f-16s-syria-border

  • Mehmet

    As a Turkish I don’t think Turkey unofficially declared war on Syria. The Turkish government just wanted a permission to make a military operation out of Turkish borders. Because the party in control (AKP) wants to threat the Syrian government with it. Actually nobody wants to be in a war in Turkey. Everybody wants Turkey to stay neutral. But Turkish government is being used by United States and US wants Turkey in a new war because they can’t fund a war . Lots of people thinks the rebels are launching bombs into Turkish borders to make Turkish Army help them. This is what happening in Turkey.

  • http://www.santasgrottolondon.co.uk Santa’s Grotto London

    To be honest Turkey and Syria are destined to go to war. But the way that whole side of the planet is at the moment, it would not shock me if we were headed towards another World war.